Variables for denuclearization

By Tong Kim

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is waiting for the Trump administration to change its position and accept his offer of a phased denuclearization. However, there is no indication that Washington is considering backing down on its demand for an early, comprehensive denuclearization that caused the breakdown of the Hanoi summit in late February.

Pyongyang is now saying that if Washington does not drop its current “method of calculation” by the end of this year as set by Kim in his April 13 speech to the Supreme People's Assembly, the U.S. “will face an undesired consequence” according to its first vice foreign minister, Choe Son-hui's warning on April 30.

Choe was reacting to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's April 25 interview with CBS, in which he said if the North does not keep its commitment to denuclearize, his administration could “change paths.” Choe was practicing what she has learned from her long diplomatic career, a hardliner's support for her leader and an artful ambiguity.

“It is a foolish and dangerous idea to bring down our system at any cost even by resorting to the military means, as the maximum pressure and economic blockade are not working against us,” she said.

However, she added, “Our determination for denuclearization remains unchanged, and when the time comes, we will put it into practice.”

Choe has risen to a prominent position of influence very fast especially under Chairman Kim. Now she is the first vice foreign minister and a member of the Council of State Affairs. During Kim Jong-il's rule, the first vice minister was more influential and had more access to the leader than the foreign minister, a position now held by Ri Yong-ho, who is also a member of the state council.

Choe was first known to Americans in 1994 as an interpreter for Kim Kye-gwan, then vice foreign minister, who headed DPRK delegations to numerous bilateral and multilateral negotiations involving the United States. Kim himself later held the position of first vice foreign minister. She rose up the ladder of positions from a researcher to deputy director general, to director general, and to vice minister responsible for U.S. affairs.

Nobody now knows when and how the dialogue of denuclearization will get back on track. As far as Pyongyang is concerned, the ball is in the U.S.' court until the end of the year. When U.S. nuclear envoy Stephen Biegun goes to Seoul this week to discuss a “final, fully-verified denuclearization,” there is no great expectation of his visit to make a big difference, unless he brings a new idea with President Trump's blessing.

If Biegun wants to meet with his DPRK counterpart whenever possible, it may not be former nuclear representative Kim Hyok-chol anymore. Although unconfirmed, there were reports that Kim was sent back to the foreign ministry after being held accountable for the failure of the Hanoi summit. Former minister of the united front for unification and still a vice chairman of the Workers Party Kim Yong-chol, who met Trump twice at the White House, has also been reported to have been reprimanded for his failure to advise the infallible Kim Jong-un rightly.

When North Korea says it wants to see the U.S. stop its hostile policy, it means not just security assurances against foreign invasion, it also wants economic assistance that can support the livelihood of the people to solidify the legitimacy of the Kim regime.

In the meantime, Kim's biggest challenge is how to survive the sanctions pressure and develop a self-sufficient economy. World food organizations report North Korea's food shortage for this year is about 1.5 million tons, which the North has no money to import and will have to depend on international grants. Donors are mindful that the regime is developing a nuclear program and has an abysmal record of human rights.

Yet, North Korea will not surrender its nuclear weapons unilaterally because of sanctions or military threats. It may be considering unthinkable options: fighting economic hardship, launching provocations, or waiting out until a better chance comes. In a way, now is the best time for the North. South Korea is trying hard to mediate talks between Pyongyang and Washington.

If the North survives the maximum pressure from the international community, Kim Jong-un will still be in power in the next two or three years, but Trump may not be around after two years and Moon will be gone after three years. Perhaps, Kim has a golden opportunity to resolve a century-old issue to build friendly relations with the U.S. and the neighbors, and a peaceful, nuclear-free Korean peninsula.

Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.