Breakdown of nuclear negotiation

By Tong Kim

At this point, the prospect of denuclearization appears gloomier and more distant than ever. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, addressing the14th Supreme People's Assembly on April 13, said that his country will not yield to sanctions pressure, but will rather “weather and foil” it through “self-reliance.” He set a deadline for the process of negotiations till the end of this year.

Kim also said that the U.S. should not miscalculate that its maximum pressure will “bring us to our knees.” He questions if he has to respond to a third summit “just because of the issues of sanctions relief.” Yet, he accepts “one more (round of) talks,” if the U.S. chooses a new position, by dropping its “impractical” method of calculation, and if it comes up with “a certain methodology that can be shared with us.”

Kim's remarks came after President Moon Jae-in's meeting with President Trump on April 11, which did not result in changing Washington's policy on North Korea. Trump made it clear that he will keep the current level of sanctions, while looking for a big deal for now, rather than small steps that Seoul was considering as necessary to make progress in denuclearization.

Apparently, Kim is not interested in responding to President Moon's call for another inter-Korean summit for the time being. Kim does not seem to believe he will hear anything new from Moon about Trump, other than that Trump, while not in a hurry, will look forward to meeting Kim again after “step by step” preparations. Moon has little to tell Kim with respect to how differently Trump may approach the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Hanoi.

At the Supreme People's Assembly, in a seeming attempt to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington, Kim also complained the South “should not act as an officious 'mediator' or 'booster' that adopts a vacillating stand depending on the trend…but be a party advocating the interest of the nation with its own spirit and voice, being part of the nation.”

On April 18, Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry director-general of American affairs Kwon Jong-gun demanded that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo be replaced as a participant in the top down summit diplomacy with someone more communicable and more mature.

Although the comment was made in a lower form of official statement as an answer to a question from a KCNA reporter, it sent a clear message that the North did not appreciate Pompeo's role in Hanoi. Pompeo interpreted Kim's deadline as if it applies to the abandonment of nuclear weapons. Pompeo said Kim “wanted it done by the end of the year. I'd love to see that done sooner.”

Perhaps, worse to the North Koreans, Pompeo told a recent Senate hearing that Kim Jong-un was a tyrant, which they must have thought to have defamed the inviolable “dignity” of their supreme leadership.

While the leaders of the U.S. and the DPRK keep saying their relations are on good terms, Pyongyang will not succeed to isolate Trump from his advisers, on whom Trump seems to have become more dependent for detailed implications of any top down decision that he may want to make impulsively. However, if a third summit does come around and Pompeo is still around to participate in it, it will be a very awkward situation.

In the meantime, National Security Advisor John Bolton made another statement to the displeasure of the North Korean ear. He said for a third summit to happen, Kim Jong-un will have to make a strategic decision to denuclearize and there should be an indication that he will make progress on it. He sounds like saying that things ought to start from scratch all over again.

On April 17, the North tested an unspecified new technical weapon that they claimed was equipped with a guided flight system and “a powerful warhead.” It may be one way to keep the U.S.' attention, while avoiding any charges of breaking the moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile tests that Kim has promised Trump.

Yet, with strong messages from Pyongyang of determined resistance against sanctions and diehard rejection of the U.S. demands for an all in one big deal, the North appears to be preparing itself for meeting “an intolerable challenge” of the plight of economic difficulty.

The North will try to get economic relief and political support from Russia, when Kim meets with President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok this week. But, this will not solve Kim's problem.

It will take longer to find a breakthrough to the current deadlock, perhaps because of the deep distrust of the United States by Pyongyang and the intractable unilateralism by Washington.

Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.