A flurry of summits on Korea

By Tong Kim

We will soon witness historic events. U.S. President Donald Trump said he will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in May. Before that, President Moon Jae-in will meet Kim at the end of April.

Moon has said if these two meetings go well, a trilateral meeting among Moon, Trump and Kim may be possible, presumably to seal a comprehensive package deal on denuclearization.

Moon is also seeking a summit with Japan, a trilateral with Japan and China as well as another meeting with Trump. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also reportedly is seeking a summit with Kim. All these summits could happen before a Trump-Kim meeting.

Criticisms of Trump's decision to meet the North Korean leader were based on two grounds: disregard of normal process and risks of his decision.

Regarding process, Trump made his decision without consulting his advisers or going through a normal decision-making process. He also departed from the traditional practice of summitry in which a president does not make a deal directly with a foreign leader. But the president can conduct foreign policy as he pleases.

That said, starting from the top is not a bad idea. It can save a lot of time. Once top leaders reach a broad agreement, their lower tiers can work on the details.

Regarding the summit's risks, there is a long list of caveats, including but not limited to:

(1) Trump could be played by Kim Jong-un, who has been recognized as his counterpart for negotiation on equal footing.

(2) The North will never give up its nuclear weapons. They will seek recognition as a nuclear weapons state.

(3) The North will seek a disruption of the effective maximum pressure campaign.

(4) North Korea will cheat again on any future agreement while earning time to complete its nuclear program.

(5) Any negotiation will be protracted for many years.

(6) A peace treaty will precipitate U.S. troop withdrawal.

Most of these concerns are based on experience and current assessments of the North's intention. The veracity or validity of these concerns should be tested through a thorough process of negotiation, which will begin on the premise of North Korea's commitment to denuclearization.

Trump's talking points may include:

“The U.S. will not tolerate a North Korean nuclear-missile capability threatening the United States. We are seeking a complete denuclearization of North Korea through all means possible, including military action. I don't want to repeat the past mistakes.

“The United States is not seeking war or regime change in North Korea. The U.S. will be willing to provide security assurances and economic cooperation to a denuclearized North Korea.

“We are willing to work with your government to improve human rights in your country. We support progress in inter-Korean relations. But the U.S. military presence in South Korea is not negotiable.”

North Korea's demands are well known, including: termination of the perceived U.S. hostile policy against the DPRK, the lifting of economic sanctions, normalization with the U.S., a peace treaty and withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea.

It should be helpful if Kim repeats the following points to Trump:

“We reaffirm our serious commitment to denuclearization. We will have no reason to keep our nuclear weapons if you guarantee the security of our system and remove military threats against our country.

“A denuclearized Korean Peninsula is my grandfather's last will. My father once said the U.S. does not have to be 'a sworn enemy of one hundred years'. We want peaceful coexistence.

“There will be no nuclear or missile tests while talks are under way. The DPRK will not oppose normal U.S. joint military drills with the South. We have no intention of attacking the United States.”

Critics offer little optimism on the prospect of a positive outcome from a Trump-Kim summit. Nevertheless, the news of a potential meeting has already brought about a dramatic turnaround, from talk of war to talk of peaceful resolution.

One source of optimism: Trump and Kim seem to share the kind of leadership trait of making bold decisions for a quick solution. In the North, Kim is the only one who can make an unexpected strategic decision.

Whether Trump can produce a successful deal will depend on how much reward he is ready to give to North Korea and how soon. Negotiation is a process of give-and-take. If Trump wins in his gamble, war will be avoided. And that will be good for all. What's your take?

Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.