Seoul, Washington and Pyongyang

By Tong Kim

South Korea is besieged by a political vacuum resulting from the impeachment of its president, interrupting normal governance of state affairs. The unfolding of this bizarre drama coincides with the incoming of a Trump administration, whose Korea policy is still not clear even after the nominations of key cabinet members to carry out U.S. foreign policy, including Rex Tillerson for secretary of state.

In Seoul, the nation is caught between the people’s wish and the law on the question of what to do with President Park’s fate. She was impeached by an overwhelming vote ― 234 to 56 ― on the charges of infringement upon the constitution, extortion, and abuse of power. Millions of people participated in vigil demonstrations demanding an immediate resignation of the president.

Even after the impeachment that has stripped her of presidential authority, Park refuses to step down, and the only peaceful way of removing her is to go through a time consuming due process of law.

The Constitutional Court has 180 days to rule on the impeachment. Until a final ruling by the Court is reached, she remains a nominal president, confining herself to her presidential residence. The Court is put under enormous public pressure to make its decision as soon as possible, and a decision will probably take about three months.

The center of power has shifted from the presidency to the parliament, especially to the opposition parties. The ruling Saenuri Party is in disarray, undergoing a factional struggle that may lead to a split into two separate parties.

Prime minister Hwang Kyo-ahn took over the administration as acting president. He was nominated by Park before she was impeached. She had planned to replace him with a new prime minister that the national legislature would accept.

The constitution does not stipulate the authority of an acting president. A dominant view holds that Hwang should serve only as a temporary caretaker to oversee a presidential election if the impeachment is upheld. When former President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached, the then acting president did not touch substantive policy issues, expecting Roh’s exoneration by the Constitutional Court, which did happen.

In hindsight, the parliament could have agreed, as suggested by the President before her impeachment, on a new prime minister who would carry out much of the authority delegated from the President. Now there is a tug of war between the acting president and the National Assembly with respect to how much power should be given to the acting president.

If convicted, ― which is very likely ― President Park’s term would be immediately terminated and she could even be subject to criminal prosecution, depending on the ongoing investigations undertaken by a special prosecutor. After her departure, a special presidential election must be held within 60 days.

There are several candidates in liberal opposition circles, who have expressed their interest to run for the presidency, including Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Lee Jae-myung. In the conservative camp, badly hurt by Park’s leadership failures, no individual stands out as a potential contender. Support for Ban Ki-moon, departing US Secretary General, has drastically dwindled along with the Saenuri Party.

There is a high probability that a liberal president will lead the country in the wake of the two failed, conservative presidencies of Lee Myung-back and Park Geun-hye. There is much talk of a constitutional revision to curtail presidential power. However, an extensive constitutional revision does not sound realistic, given the tight schedule for presidential campaigns.

In Washington, the President-elect is finishing a lineup of his cabinet picks. The views of the nominees for foreign policy positions are not very well known. But, Trump’s management style is known as well as his conflicting statements on China, North Korea, and U.S. allies. He is known to prefer a balance of influence from his aids, while he is expected to delegate authority to his cabinet or cabinet-level chiefs to run their organizations as they see fit.

Trump has proven himself an energetic and hardworking leader. He appears to be the first president-elect to meet with so many potential competitors for key government positions. He has met with many leaders of different walks of life to consider their views. He thinks out of the box, as a person who never worked in government ― he had never been in the box.

Admittedly, there are many controversies over the way he handles business as a president-elect ― including conflict of interest involving his private businesses, skipping intelligence briefings, nominating some controversial or divisive figures, temperamental Tweets without fact-checks, etc.

What will Trump do concerning Korea? He will maintain the traditional alliance with the Republic of Korea. His key advisors ― including the national security advisor and the secretary of defense know that the alliance serves the vital strategic interest of the United States. There might come some adjustments to cost sharing and even to the trade agreement. The KORUS FTA may be reviewed but it would not hurt Korea unilaterally. Trump has yet to nominate somebody for the post of USTR.

In Pyongyang, the Kim Jong-un regime has been relatively quiet, restraining from new provocations, uncertain what Trump might do differently from Obama. Pyongyang enjoys watching the political turmoil in the south, but it is unlikely to launch an attack taking advantage of Seoul’s vulnerability. It did not invade the South during the April student uprising, or after the assassination of Park Chung-hee, the December 12 coup by Chun Doo-hwan, or the May 18 massacre in Gwangju.

As a minimum, the North should keep restraining from any nuclear or missile test, until the dust settles in Seoul and Trump’s team decides what to do with them. A new provocation would not help Pyongyang’s interest. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.