North pulls off new ball game

By Tong Kim

North Korea’s successful firing on Aug. 24 of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is emerging as a game-changer of security strategy in Korea. The North could build an operational SLBM capability within a few years to complete two facets of the “nuclear triad” for delivery of a nuclear arsenal from land and sea, except from the air, targeting as far as Japan, Guam and the U.S.

The North released a video of the launch being monitored by their leader, Kim Jong-un. He said on the spot: “I do not guess what ridiculous remarks the U.S. and its followers will make, but I can say their rash acts will only precipitate their self-destruction.” He warned the South and the U.S. “to refrain from hurting the dignity and security of the DPRK with prudence and self-control.”

The launch came after a series of test failures and partial successes, all in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and in defiance of sanctions, demonstrating Pyongyang’s intransigent pursuit of its nuclear and missile program. The pace of progress in technology is noted as much faster than expected in the view of most experts.

The SLBM was fired at a high angle, using solid fuel, and it flew over 500 kilometers, landing in Japan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). If fired at a normal angle, its trajectory would reach 1,000 kilometers. The North is known to have only one 2,000-ton class submarine that can carry a missile for underwater launch. The North claims it has mastered the technology for miniaturization and reentry for mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Pyongyang sometimes carries out its own word, and the latest firing of a SLBM is an example of making good on the word. Before the beginning of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise, the North warned that it would retaliate against “any slightest sign of aggression with our nuclear deterrent in Korean style.” Pyongyang complained in a letter to the U.N. Security Council that the allied exercise was to rehearse “a preemptive nuclear war” on the North.

The operational plan 5015, under which the exercise is being conducted, includes a preemptive strike against the increasing North Korean nuclear threats. It appears sensible that this year’s exercise does not mobilize such war assets as an aircraft carrier, a nuclear-powered submarine or a stealth bomber.

Military exercises are necessary to enhance the deterrent, at the absence of threat reduction through a peace process. Yet, deterrent is not sufficient to bring about a peaceful resolution of the Korean issue. Every year, the annual exercises in spring and summer end up raising tensions, regardless of their well-intended objectives.

With the remarkable SLBM launch this time, Kim may feel that he has made up for the embarrassing defection of Tae Yong-ho, deputy North Korean ambassador to London. Seoul’s unification ministry said the defection was motivated by “being sick and tired of the North Korean regime and yearning for South Korea’s democracy.” Tae’s concerns for his grown children’s education were also widely reported as a motivation for defection.

Pyongyang’s KCNA said the defector, who went to South Korea with the assistance of British and American agents, was “a human scum that has sold state secrets, embezzled public funds and raped a minor, and he had been under orders to return to Pyongyang since June.”

However, the North Korean media, for its domestic audience, was silent about the rare defection of their ranking diplomat.

Tae was not the first defector from the North Korean elites serving as a backbone for the Kim dynasty. Workers’ Party secretary Hwang Jang-yup and DPRK ambassador to Egypt Jang Seung-gil defected in 1997, and many North Korean officials working overseas have defected to the South. Many of them provided valuable information.

There appears to be a shifting trend of defection, from economic reason to political motivation, and arguably from low to middle-class people, but it does not constitute a plausible rationale for an apparent view of President Park that the North Korean regime has started to crack, heading toward collapse.

Pyongyang’s SLBM launch quickly stirred up opponents of THAAD deployment to point out that North Korea’s SLBM capability further neutralizes the limited effectiveness of the THAAD system that covers a 120-degree forward sector. The system may be able to destroy incoming missiles from the north but not those coming from the east, south or west, where submarines may fire them.

In Tokyo last week, after meeting the Korean foreign minister, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed China’s “resolute opposition” to the THAAD deployment. Wang warned that China does not want to see a negative impact “affecting all phases of its relations with South Korea.” However, Wang agreed with his counterparts from Tokyo and Seoul to disapprove of North Korean behavior that contravenes U.N. resolutions.

It is not certain that the THAAD deployment will be completed by the end of next year as planned. There is significant, if not insurmountable, opposition from home and abroad. Opposition by China and Russia is adamant. China has started taking concrete steps to curb South Korean interests in reaction to Seoul’s decision. Local residents in the South strongly oppose the basing of a missile battery in their own area. Many opposition politicians demand a parliamentary review of the deployment.

Perhaps it is better to postpone the deployment for now and overhaul President Park’s failing North Korea policy to meet new challenges from the changing security environment in the region. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.