Trump presidency still possible

By Tong Kim

If you look at recent polls or follow media reports, you may conclude that Hillary Clinton will be elected the next president of the United States. The Democratic nominee is eight to 10 points ahead of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, who also trails in such critical swing states as Ohio and Pennsylvania, and is neck and neck in Florida.

Every day, the mainstream media, except the conservative Fox News, capitalize on Trump’s self-inflicted trouble that rises from politically incorrect and gratuitously provocative statements, providing a basis for his critics to paint his temperament unfit to serve as the president and commander-in-chief. He is accused of being a racist, misogynist, demagogue, inciter of violence, ignorant of the Constitution, anti-Muslim, and disparager of a war hero and a Gold Star family.

His comments against a federal judge of Mexican heritage and his description of illegal Mexican immigrants as rapists and criminals also are costing him dearly, although most Hispanic voters had already rallied behind Clinton. His campaign pledge to build a wall and have Mexico pay for it, as well as deporting 11 million illegal immigrants, had already alienated the Hispanic community that is becoming more influential in American electoral politics.

There is more bad news for Trump supporters. Some of the primary contestants including Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich do not support Trump. Several other notable Republicans, including sitting U.S. Senators and Representatives of the Republican Party do not endorse him. Fifty top national security officials who served in the George W. Bush administration signed an open letter, declaring that Trump “lacks the character, values and experience to be the president, adding he will be “the most reckless president in American history.” Earlier, a couple of dozen foreign policy experts, including those who worked in Democratic administrations, came out to oppose Trump.

Clinton has her own problems. Sixty-nine percent of voters do not think she is trustworthy or honest. The negative impact from her private email server and her alleged handling of the Benghazi attack relentlessly plague her campaign, raising questions of character and her judgment on national security. A question of impropriety is raised over donations given to the Clinton Foundation while she was serving as secretary of state and a possible quid pro quo for them.

Any failures, real or perceived, for the past seven and half years of the Obama administration are a burden to the Democratic nominee. Policy-wise, the voters do not want four more years of the same administration. They want change, a change that can fix the failing system of American politics to produce a better economy and a more secure country. The Clinton campaign focuses on the issue of Trump’s temperament and his gaffes.

There has been a recurring situation for Trump, in which he says something that stirs a controversy and then he or his campaign explains what he meant to say. Clinton was right when she said “words matter.” But the voters are yet to figure out why Trump keeps making incendiary statements that are not helpful to his campaign. Since the primaries, Trump has dominated the media with his outspoken words with almost every news cycle.

The most central to the November election is a binary choice between two evils: to choose the lesser evil. More than 60 percent of voters do not trust either candidate and believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Even after the conventions, Trump draws larger crowds of supporters at campaign stumps. The two rivals are demonizing each other: Trump calls his opponent “the crooked Hillary and a liar;” Clinton attacks Trump’s temperament as “dangerous and unstable, and unfit to be president.”

Trump defends his temperament as “the temperament to win.” He dismissed the foreign policy establishment’s criticism as a complaint by the power interest group that led “the world into a mess,” and said he was not going to hire them. He blames the media for being “dishonest.” It is not even sure whether there will be a public debate in September.

Perhaps the strongest source of encouragement for Trump is that the people want change, fed up with the establishment, Republican or Democratic. Clinton is an establishment candidate. Trump certainly is an outsider, and an anti-establishment candidate, who does not owe large campaign donors and therefore is freer to carry out his agenda: revive the economy, build the military and defeat ISIS.

Trump calls Obama “the founder of ISIS” and Clinton “a cofounder.” Both candidates pledge to defeat ISIS, and both are committed to revisit unfair trade agreements including the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Their disagreements on gun control, abortion, and admitting Muslim refugees are only some salient aspects of political and moral differences.

Trump’s skeptical comments on the NATO alliance, and U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan, are in stark contrast with Clinton’s more traditional American policy that puts emphasis on cooperation with allies and partners to fight terrorism and maintain international security and stability.

Whoever is elected, there would be no withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, and neither South Korea nor Japan will become a nuclear state because of U.S. policy. Both candidates oppose North Korea’s nuclear development, and both criticize human rights abuses in the North. Both pledge to protect the South from the North Korean nuclear threats. However, more changes or adjustments are expected from a Trump presidency that will affect the peace and security of the peninsula and the region.

The election is a little more than two months away, and anything can happen between now and then. Polls are only snapshots of the moment. Too many unsettled variables are yet to determine the November election. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.