No big expectations for talks

By Tong Kim

Vice-ministerial talks between the two Koreas scheduled for December 11 at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, are without a fixed agenda. The objective set is to have dialogue on a range of issues within inter-Korean relations, but this is not expected to break new ground. It is still possible to make a positive step toward mutually beneficial cooperation by moving away from tension and volatility to stability and peaceful coexistence.

Reasons to be skeptical are multiple. The biggest hurdle is mistrust. Both sides occasionally make positive statements to each other, yet neither side takes these seriously. Second, dialogue at the vice-ministerial-level is not high enough. At this level, there is unlikely to be a fundamental shift in each nation’s policy of military confrontation or containment.

At a preparatory meeting on November 26, the South first proffered a ministerial meeting between Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo and Director of the United Front Department of the North Korean Workers Party Kim Yang Gon, assuming that the men were of equivalent rank. Kim is also party secretary and member of the politburo.

Although Kim and Hong are both responsible for similar areas of policy, it is difficult to compare them in terms of rank, because the opaqueness of the North Korean bureaucratic system often blurs where the lines of authority run among the party, the military and the cabinet. Apparently, the North Koreans think Hong is not a match for Kim. In diplomacy, formality and protocol is important, but what’s more important is pragmatic substance: what can be gained from talks.

Both sides have agreed to improve their relations through dialogue at a “troika” ad hoc meeting held toward the end of the Asian Games in October 2014 and according to the August 25 accord reached after a landmine belonging to the North detonated in the DMZ resulting in two South Korean soldiers being maimed. Both agreements involved the participation of Kim Yang Gon and Hwang Pyong So, director of the KPA Political Bureau and sometimes regarded as the No. 2 man in the DPRK, and Kim Kwan Jin, Director of Security at the Blue House, and the unification minister. Kim Kwan Jin is the South’s top official for security, and he is deemed to be of higher rank, not under law but according to remit of his job, than cabinet ministers are.

In 2013, the two Koreas aborted an opportunity for talks because of a dispute over ranks. Since then, there have been no regular inter-Korean talks between the two sides. In this respect, it is still better that the two sides agreed to go ahead with a vice-ministerial meeting. Some pundits even doubt whether this meeting will go ahead, given the number of instances in which North-South talks have been cancelled at the last minute.

Each side is seeking its own agenda for different goals. Through dialogue, the North wants the May 24 restrictions lifted, which have frozen inter-Korean economic cooperation, barring South Korean businesses from trade and investment with the North since the sinking of the Cheonan naval vessel in 2010. The North is also seeking a reopening of tourism to Mt. Geumgang. The South is still demanding an apology for the Cheonan incident before it removes the economic restrictions. In order to reopen tourism to Mt. Geumgang, the South is demanding an assurance of safety for future tourists.

It is well known that the North has an advanced nuclear and missile program. It is capable of testing a fourth nuclear device or launching another long-range missile in the name of benign space science at a time of their choice. The North has a substantial nuclear arsenal and keeps developing new strategic weapons.

Last week, the North conducted another ejection test of a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) in the East Sea. Although they seemed to have failed this time around, as nothing soared up above the surface, it shows that they are continuing to develop their strategic weapons. If and when they eventually succeed in building a fully operational SLBM system equipped with nuclear warheads, it will be a game changer in the allied deterrent.

The South has been exposed to nuclear threats from the North for some time now. Nevertheless, the resolution of the nuclear issue has never been a bilateral subject of discussion between the North and the South because Pyongyang refuses to talk about it with Seoul. In Washington, another trilateral nuclear coordination meeting was held on December 3 by U.S. North Korea policy representative Sung Kim and his counterparts from Seoul and Tokyo. The official readout of the meeting shows no change to their position on the North: no dialogue with the North unless it changes.

North Korea, while refusing to compromise on its own nuclear position, occasionally makes proposals in a vain attempt to engage the United States. Earlier this year it proffered a proposal for suspension of its nuclear tests in return for cancellation of the joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. In October, Pyongyang proposed discussion of a peace agreement to replace the Armistice Agreement, as a pre-step to negotiations of the nuclear issue. It would not be a surprise if the North makes another offer of some kind, even if they may do so, knowingly that it would be rejected by Washington as their earlier proposals were.

There are still some elements of optimism. North Korea has not conducted a fourth nuclear test or another ICBM launch for whatever reason. They should know that they already have enough deadly weapons that they don’t need to develop more for the purposes of survival, domestic consumption, or external leverage of negotiation. Kim Jong Un says he is committed to improving the people’s living standards and to do more good for the people.

To carry out his plan, he needs resources that are not readily available, while some of the resources could come from the South if he decides to take a different path. We can only hope and pray that the next round of inter-Korean talks will be a renewed start for more fruitful talks to follow. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.