Uneasy competition in the Asia Pacific

By Tong Kim

Despite U.S. efforts to assuage differences between Japan and South Korea, the two U.S. allies are not narrowing the gap in their perspectives over history and territorial claims. The problem between Korea and Japan is looming large as a serious obstacle to U.S. moves to counter the rapid expansion of China’s power and influence, and the shifting dynamics of security relationships in the region.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has just concluded his first Asia trip to Japan and Korea. Public reports of his consultations with Japanese and South Korean leaders showed no surprises. In Tokyo, Carter discussed three major issues, including the revision of the defense guidelines, and Japan’s legislation for collective defense and for carrying out ongoing force realignment in Japan, and relocating a large number of Marines to Guam with Japanese funds.

In Seoul, Carter reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to deter North Korean threats jointly with South Korea. This is not a new but necessary ritual, as there are real threats to security on the Korean Peninsula. The same kind of security commitment has been renewed whenever there is a change of administration or high-ranking officials in Washington or Seoul.

Carter’s discussion with the Japanese officials was a prelude to a 2+2 defense and foreign ministers’ conference to be held in Washington shortly ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the U.S. Koreans are holding their breath to hear what Abe might say when he addresses a joint session of Congress. Will he talk about the sex slavery perpetrated by Japan?

Almost at the same time, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russell went to Tokyo to discuss likely topics for the summit at the White House. South Koreans seem to believe that Washington is becoming increasingly inclined toward acquiescing to Japan’s reluctance to admit fully its crimes against Korean women.

The emotionally charged Koreans did not welcome Russell’s comments at a press conference in Tokyo, and by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman at a Washington conference in March.

Both appeared to put the history issue behind and to look to the future. Washington’s East Asia policy has long been to build a cooperative relationship between its two allies.

Washington cannot, for its own strategic interest, choose Japan over Korea or vice versa. It must be frustrating to the U.S. that does not have much political leverage to resolve the historical issues between Seoul and Tokyo. The answer lies with Japan: Abe offers a genuine apology and honors the constructive statements made by chief cabinet secretary Yohei Kono.

To some observers, Abe seems to be taking advantage of the U.S. rebalance for which Japan’s cooperation and support is critical. The rebalancing is no doubt a security priority, and as Carter put it at Arizona State University, it will not be achieved by military power alone. It requires healthy economic support at home and the participation of Seoul and Tokyo. Hence, he compared a successful Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Japan and 11 other nations to the value of one aircraft carrier.

It is no secret that besides South Korea and Japan, the U.S. is rallying support from Australia to India and from ASEAN members to check China’s expanding power and influence in the region and elsewhere that might challenge the existing international order.

In reaction, China is seeking its own security network to include Russia and North Korea. According to Dmitri Trenin, a Russian specialist at the Carnegie Endowment, Russia is likely to pursue its own “Pivot to Asia” in a strategic alliance with China and the Central Asian countries to challenge U.S. interests in the region and the world.

Many predict that if China continues its projected growth, U.S. influence will shrink over time. When Carter was testifying before the House budget committee in March, he said the defense budget due to sequester did not even guarantee the passage of President Obama’s defense bill for $585 billion.

The U.S. military is still the world’s strongest. The country spends three times more than the Chinese military, roughly 40 percent of all global military spending. Although the U.S. will put 60 percent of its naval force in the Asia Pacific, its fleet has shrunk from 350 ships to 285. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute warns it may decline to 260.

The Pentagon’s strategy is to make up for the falling numbers by retaining its technological edge in the defense industry. Policymakers and pundits say Washington and Beijing will continue to compete and cooperate in the region. Washington argues that maintaining the status quo of stability will continue to benefit countries in the region, including China, in terms of peace and prosperity.

China will not try to drive out the U.S. from Asia, as Beijing does not have enough power. But China is getting more assertive on territorial issues in the East and South China seas, and will likely challenge U.S. interests more aggressively in the future. Koreans just hope the two Pacific giants do not clash militarily.

On April 15, the U.S. deputy secretary of state will host a trilateral meeting in Washington with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea — obviously in a follow-up of the recent diplomatic activities in Tokyo and Seoul — to find some sort of a minimum understanding that the rebalance to Asia is more important than unresolved issues of history. What’s your take?

The writer is the Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times, and fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. His email address is tong.kim8@yahoo.com.