Arms race and peace

By Tong Kim

As diplomatic efforts to improve inter-Korean relations or resolve security issues for a permanent peace settlement on the peninsula are failing, both sides have resorted to bolstering their military might for security in an arms race at the cost of scarce resources.

North Korea has proven its nuclear, missile and other destructive capabilities to attack and inflict unbearable damage to South Korea. It is believed to still be working on technology to fit a nuclear warhead atop a missile. North Korea can employ a less sophisticated nuclear delivery means to attack the South.

The most threatening assets of the North Korean arsenal include 6–8 plutonium bombs each with a yield of up to 40 kilotons, and an array of short- and mid-range missiles as well as long-range ballistic missiles, including Taepodong 2 and untested KN08 mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the South, Japan, Guam and some parts of the United States.

North Korea has threatened to conduct a fourth nuclear test in “a new form,” which, if carried out despite international pressures against it, may turn out to be a uranium bomb test. From all indications, Pyongyang is determined to complete its nuclear weapons program, regardless of whether it is recognized as a nuclear weapons state.

Some reports say that North Korea has procured EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weaponry from Russia and North Korean scientists are developing their own EMP bomb, which can paralyze all electronic equipment being used by the military and industries of the South. An EMP attack, while it sounds like science fiction, would be more devastating than any cyber-attack that has been discussed so far.

Last week, the defense ministry announced that the three crashed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or drones with cameras that photographed some military zones and the presidential compound were believed to have flown from the North. Although the drones depended on simple crude technology, some are concerned that they could be used to convey biological weapons to the South.

To counter these asymmetric and unconventional forms of threats, South Korea is developing or acquiring several types of new weapons systems. On March 7, the South tested its own ballistic missile with a range of 500km and a payload of 1 ton, capable of reaching all parts of North Korea. The South will start deploying them next year. With a missile development plan concurred on by Washington, the South will also develop an 800km missile.

The South Korean military is enhancing its own missile defense system to intercept incoming enemy missiles in low to high altitudes. For nuclear threats, the South relies on U.S. commitment to an extended deterrence, including the nuclear umbrella: the U.S. will use nuclear weapons against the North, should it launch a nuclear attack on the South.

Pyongyang has been fully aware of the awesome U.S. war assets that would be deployed in the event of a war. They include B-52 bombers with a range of 6,400km, capable of carrying 27 tons of bombs and air-to-ground nuclear missiles of 200 kilotons; and B-2 stealth bombers with a range of 11,000km capable of dropping 16 B83 nuclear bombs each weighing 1.1 tons.

In addition, various naval assets such as a 6,900 ton class nuclear-powered submarine and other types of nuclear capable attack submarines in parallel with aircraft assets have participated in the ROK-U.S. joint exercises in the past. The aircraft carrier George Washington has been a centerpiece of a show of force around the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea is the world’s fourth largest arms importer, with a defense budget of about $34.3 billion for the current year. It plans to spend over $10 billion for the next several years to purchase new generation fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, naval helicopters, and information gathering assets. For the past 20 years, the South has outspent the North over nine times.

Without U.S. assistance, the balance of military power would tilt in Pyongyang’s favor, as long as the North keeps its nuclear weapons. Due to the efficacy of mutually assured destruction in an all-out war, the military balance seems to work as an effective deterrent. However, if the balance is maintained only by an endless and costly arms race and mutual threats, the leaders of both sides should stop and think where they are heading.

Diplomacy keeps failing. Pyongyang has just rejected President Park Geun-hye’s proposal of steps to prepare for unification offered in Dresden on March 28. It is too bad, but not surprising, that the North turned this down. Notably, Pyongyang’s National Defense Commission took two weeks to discard it as “irrelevant and nonsensical” because it did not include discussion of political or military issues.

A small piece of good news is that Seoul, Washington and Tokyo have reportedly agreed to be flexible on preconditions for a resumption of the six-party talks, although no details are known. Beijing would welcome it. If the six-party talks are somehow resumed after five dormant years, they should at least work to reduce tension and slow down the North Korean nuclear programs as a short-term goal.

An arms race thrives on an insecure state of mind. An arms race without an exit is a dead end. It is not the way to go. It drains scarce resources that can be used to improve people’s livelihood. Peace is not free but it should not require an arms race. We should explore better ways to preserve peace. What’s your take?

The author is a visiting scholar at the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University, a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies and an ICAS fellow in the United States.