By Tong Kim
Unlike the three previous elections that chose Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, and Roh Moo-hyun as presidents, the Korean voters hardly seem to be excited about this year's presidential election that is less than two months away. They are not excited about the candidates to vote for or against. This election is not about "democratization versus authoritarian rule."
Major candidates include Lee Myung-bak of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP), Chung Dong-young of the liberal United New Democratic Party (UNDP), Rhee In-je of the Democratic Party (DP), and independent Moon Kook-hyun, a business executive who is yet to form a party.
Maybe the voters are still waiting for a final unified candidate who will represent all the liberal pro-government forces to run against the opposition candidate Lee Myung-bak, who has been the consistent front runner in polls for months.
According to a poll conducted by The Korea Times jointly with a research firm right after Chung Dong-young was confirmed as the UNDP's candidate, GNP's Lee still was way ahead with a support rate of 49 percent, while Chung's rate doubled only to 16.6 percent. Moon's rate went up to 7.7 and Rhee In-je's to 3.7. Candidate Kwon Young-ghil of the radical Democratic Labor Party (DLP) had a 3.8 percent support.
For the liberal forces to have a chance to win in the election it is a prerequisite that they must produce a single unified candidate and keep their support together, as former President Kim Dae-jung, has repeatedly recommended from his experience and insight. If the pro-government candidates fail to unite and run separately, the GNP's victory would be a foregone conclusion.
No political pundit thinks at this point that Kwan Young-ghil, who is running for the third time and agrees more with the liberal forces than with the conservative GNP, will drop out to help defeat Lee Myung-back. DLP has a solid base of popular support from powerful labor union members.
If and after Chung Dong-young becomes the final candidate of the pro-government forces, the election will be a three way contest among GNP, UNDP in coalition with the DP and Moon's group, and the minor DLP whose supporters would vote for Chung rather than for Lee, if they did not have their own party candidate.
His flagship platform _ 747 (7 percent growth, $40,000 per capita income, among 7 largest economies of the world) _ was good for gaining attention, but lacks a detailed implementation plan and therefore credibility. His inland cannel project is still controversial in terms of a cost-benefit analysis, even within GNP. Few voters believe the cannel project will achieve his 747 goal.
Chung Dong-young attacks Lee's economic policy as "ruthless capitalist jungle policy that discriminates the poor against the rich." Chung argues "a balanced growth in parallel with distribution" is needed to maintain sustainable economic development for the big and small businesses for domestic and export markets and for both "permanent and temporary workers." Further he argues that Lee's policy would benefit only 20 percent of the people leaving 80 percent cold.
In return Lee argues his policy will pursue expansion of potential growth resource, job creation through growth, and a dynamic welfare system that will solve the problem of economic polarization. He attacks Chung's labeling of a ``2 to 8 policy" as an old tactic of dividing the nation." To encourage investment, Lee says he will allow investment of corporate funds into banking business subject to government monitoring. He says he is a doer not a taker. He says this election is between a man of words and a man of deed.
The problem with election politics is that an election often is not about policy but about image, perception, and liking or disliking. Most voters' behavior is still identified with the lines of regional affiliation and ideological divide. Negative campaigns and polarization schemes will increase as the election is getting closer, because they bring votes. Resorting to populism is also an effective tool in a democratic election. Absent an overwhelming issue, strategy and tactics _ including debates and packaging and selling _ will probably play more important roles than the substance of policy.
Both Lee and Chung have their own weaknesses and strengths: Lee lacks political experience, and he has an image problem that he is weak in foreign policy and inadequate to deal with the pressing issue of peace on the Korean peninsula. Lee is yet to prove he is really clean as regards his past financial dealings. His strongest advantage is the trend that the people may want change to move beyond the liberal democratic governments of the past 10 years.
Chung's weaknesses include: The failure of the defunct Uri Party for which he served twice as chairman and from which he deserted to let it go down; his uncomfortable relationship with President Roh Moo-hyun, who still has influence on his supporters; the late line-up of the pro-government forces; and time ticking away fast against consolidating other candidates. Chung's assets are his connections with the democratic forces and his experience in dealing with North Korea.
This election is no doubt about the economy as a whole. It is about ``growth and welfare." But it is also about two different sets of ideas and views. It is about ``peace and cooperation" versus "legacy and confrontation." It is about "conservatism versus liberalism." It is about "the southeastern region" versus "the southwestern region." It is about the people who think they are better off now after the "1997 IMF crisis" versus the people who think they are worse off now."
A successful candidate can either anger the voters against his opponent or make them feel good. To anger them the candidate wages a negative campaign, to make them feel good, he makes unrealistic promises. Often attack is easier than defense. Getting votes truly on the candidate's merit seems to be especially difficult during this election. What's your take?