By Tom Plate
It's fortunate that the chief honchos of China and the United States are to get together for a serious chat next month in London in a sideroom of a so-called economic summit. Almost any event that brings Presidents Hu Jintao and Barack Obama together is to be valued. China and the United States have become the world's single-most important 'Odd-Couple' relationship.
So far, the two leaders are getting along ― that is, so far. But Obama is just getting his feet wet with the Chinese and wants, wisely, to pull any and all punches ― for now, anyway. Cool-as-a-cucumber Hu seems to be a cautious soul and doesn't like to throw public punches (except at Tibet).
Even so, the new relationship could be getting off to a better start. The Obama administration has been making some China-critical noises and the mainland has been sending out confusing signals. The other day in the South China Sea, a small flotilla of Chinese ships came dangerously ― and purposely ― close to bumping a U.S. spy ship (the Impeccable) while it was doing its electronic-eavesdropping thing. It was sailing in international waters south of China's Hainan Island, and, interestingly enough, not that far east of Vietnam.
Hanoi didn't complain, but Beijing did. In response, America's new Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair said the high-sea drama was not just a hiccup but a ``most serious" military brush-up. Blair, a former admiral, had been the head of the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii, which is very experienced with the growing Chinese military. He cautioned the Chinese that playing games on the high seas was a risky business.
The Chinese say the United States was the provocateur. Undoubtedly, President Hu perhaps had no prior warning, much less issued direct orders. China is a huge country with more layers of command and control than probably any other country in the world, except maybe India. But if Hu did approve a stiff seaside warning to the USS Impeccable (what a name for a ship, eh?), we'd begin to worry, big time.
Spying ― especially of the electronic sort ― is as common these days as, well, economic summits. Yes, you bet, the Chinese spy on us (so don't get flustered when some U.S. Congressional probe ``discovers" it), just as we spy on them ― and every other country spies on just about everyone else. It's no big deal.
So if Hu thinks the behavior of the American spy ship was less than impeccable, if not downright suspicious, ``No drama, Obama" ― as we'll call him ― needs to explain what's up. That might, in fact, be a good discussion for the 'Odd Couple' to have. Any contentious issue, talked over together in an adult fashion, can advance the relationship, reduce misunderstandings and anchor the interdependency in functionality. In therapy-addicted America, we even have a formal name for this process. We call it ``couples therapy."
Here is the standard definition: "Couples therapy helps couples ― married or not ― understand and resolve conflicts and improve their relationship. Couples therapy gives couples the tools to communicate better, negotiate differences, problem solve and even argue in a healthier way."
What is usually essential is a relationship counselor. Usually, this is a family counselor or social worker, or even a psychologist or psychiatrist, whom in the United States we laughingly call ``shrinks," perhaps mainly for what those specialists tend to do to one's disposable income. But who has the stature to mediate this high-powered relationship? Sigmund Freud, after all, is dead.
In better times, the Japanese Prime Minister, we would argue, should be the third party in the room. The Japanese have a huge stake in the condition of the Sino-U.S. relationship. They live in China's neighborhood, after all, and they are America's closest Asian ally. Their overall economy remains in second place, globally, behind only that of the United States ― and in front, still, of China.
A sophisticated Hu might well want Tokyo in the room. But Japan's political climate, nowadays, is increasingly unpredictable ― indeed dicey. Yet another prime minister is about to be decapitated. So, if you put Taro Aso, the incumbent, in the same room as Hu and Obama next month, he'd probably be out of power by the third or fourth therapy session. What's more, the short list of successors named by the Japanese media would not seem to offer much hope for longevity, either ― not to mention distinction.
So the 'Odd Couple' will have to go at it alone. This is why the pair needs to meet as often as possible. The world needs their relationship to be nothing short of, well, impeccable.
Risking dangerous games on the high seas is irresponsible, no matter who, in the final analysis, is responsible for it. Couples need to play nice if they want to realize a mature and long-term relationship.
Syndicated columnist Tom Plate sits on the China member committee of the Pacific Council on International Policy. He can be reached at platecolumn@gmail.com.