Korea-US summit: Takeoff into headwinds

Kim Won-soo

On Monday in Washington, D.C., the first summit meeting between President Lee Jae Myung of Korea and President Donald Trump of the United States took place at the White House. The preparation process for the summit was watched anxiously, but the event concluded with a sigh of relief — more because of what did not happen than what did.

President Trump created a last-minute spectacle by posting critical comments about the domestic political situation in South Korea on his social media. The topic was raised at the meeting, but things settled down following a clarification from President Lee.

Overall, the summit turned out better than previously anticipated. For summit diplomacy, optics often matter more than substance. A new Korean president’s first encounter with the U.S. president usually sets the tone for the remainder of their term. In that sense, the Lee administration can be assessed as having made a smooth takeoff, despite mounting challenges on almost every front of the relationship with the U.S.

The following three takeaways stand out for the immediate future:

First, positive personal rapport appears to be established. This is important for the next three and half years of the Trump presidency. A good first impression will go a long way in managing bilateral relations, given Trump’s top-down decision-making style.

Second, the worst-case scenario of a diplomatic fiasco — as was the case with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — was averted. If the opposite had happened, Lee would have faced repercussions domestically.

Third, a diplomatic segue was created for the Lee administration’s next big event, the APEC Summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, slated for Oct. 31-Nov. 1. A lot of attention will shift to it, since Trump expressed his interest in attending, possibly for the opportunity to meet President Xi Jinping of China and for an overture to North Korea.

In a sense, lowered expectations before the South Korea-U.S. summit may have contributed to a bigger sigh of relief. It is far better than the other way around, where heightened expectations lead to greater disappointment.

But it does not mean the journey ahead will be smooth. The geopolitical and economic climate facing the Lee administration is very challenging both on the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asian region overall. Headwinds are brewing on multiple fronts.

On the bilateral front with the U.S., intense post-summit consultation and negotiation will be required to work out details in a way that is mutually agreeable on key issues including trade, investment, defense cost-sharing, arms purchases and alliance modernization. All of these issues are full of sensitivity and uncertainty. Revitalized Korea-Japan relations will be helpful to manage the Trump factor when it comes to the U.S., their common ally.

The elephant in the Oval Office this time was China. It was easier for South Korea to manage the sequential visits to Japan and the U.S., given their shared security interests. But the dynamics at the APEC Summit will be different with China’s presence. As the host, Korea should lead the preparation process meticulously to identify common ground and build on it.

The same goes for North Korean policy, which is high on the shared agenda. They seem to agree on the division of labor when it comes to North Korea, with Trump taking the lead and Lee supporting. Both sides have reaffirmed the principle of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

But the key question remains unanswered as to how North Korea can be induced to sit down at the negotiating table. North Korea has emphatically made it clear that their status as a nuclear state is non-negotiable. South Korea and the U.S. must pool their wisdom and come up with a coordinated strategy.

None of these tasks are easy. The road ahead is filled with bumps and obstacles. The climate of geopolitics and economics will be volatile and unpredictable. The strong headwinds are likely to intensify.

The Lee administration has had a smooth takeoff, but ultimately its success will be judged on its ability to handle the details as they pop up on the bumpy journey ahead. South Korea cannot do the job alone, nor can it succeed without domestic bipartisan support. It can and should continue to take a proactive role in building both external coalitions and internal consensus.

Kim Won-soo is a former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament affairs. He is now the rector of the Global Academy for Future Civilizations of Kyung Hee University.