COP29: Too little to avert climate hell

Kim Won-soo

The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) was recently concluded in Azerbaijan with a hard-fought outcome document. It was made possible through last-minute scrambling and hectic negotiations. It was better than no outcome, but it falls far short of the required level of ambition. It once again exposed the deep-rooted structural cleavages between and within nation states which have stood in the way of global climate action.

The COP serves as the annual pitstop in a race to avert a looming global climate disaster through the implementation of the U.N. climate pacts. It is geared toward periodically checking the progress in the implementation or the lack thereof, and making necessary adjustments. From this perspective, I would rate COP29 at around 3 on the hypothetical scale of 1 (total failure) to 10 (complete success).

Among others, COP29 agreed on increased packages for climate financing. However, it lacked the specifics on where and how the financial contributions would be raised. As widely suspected of the oil-producing host country, it did not follow up on how to transition away from fossil fuels.

The warning signs from nature are getting exponentially more serious with each passing day. The daily average temperature surpassed the red line of a 1.5-degree Celsius rise as compared to the pre-industrial age for the first time in July last year. This red line was set by the Paris climate agreement in 2015. Since then, the temperature rise has continued unabated. Now, as a result, not only the monthly but also the yearly average has crossed the threshold. It is more reasonable to assume that the crossing of the 1.5-degrees line would be irreversible as global greenhouse gas emissions are still going up.

Without tangible mitigation action taken immediately, the next red line of the 2-degree rise will certainly be crossed soon. Then the temperature rise would get much steeper following the shape of a hockey stick. This would lead to a nightmarish scenario with consequences not only disrupting our daily life through more frequent extreme weather events but also threatening the very existence of humanity through the sea level rise and the accelerating extinction of species.

However, the international community does not seem to take this reality seriously. The outcomes from the successive COPs are too little to reverse the accelerating trends of global boiling. But the community of nation states seems to be hypnotized by the wishful thinking that some magical solutions could miraculously pop up one day. The real danger sets in when we fail to recognize the crisis is already here with us. Humanity is dangerously close to a gateway to climate hell, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned.

Humanity must wake up and think deeper than the conventional mitigation and adaptation approaches against climate change. It may well be too late already. But it is still better late than never. The longer it takes, the worse it only gets.

The reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump is bad news in the global fight against climate change, as he is widely expected to withdraw again from the Paris climate agreement. But it will not be entirely bad. I suspect the prospects of Trump 2.0 may have played a positive role in pushing key delegations to engage beyond the original deadline of negotiations at COP29 for an outcome document. Depending on the future actions taken by the international community, Trump’s return can become a blessing in disguise. Then the empty seat of the United States at the climate negotiating table can be filled by a coalition of the willing.

This can only be done if and when the international community works together. A winning coalition can be formed by a new global partnership involving every stakeholder in both the public and private sectors. National governments will continue to take the lead. The political voices of provincial and city governments must be raised within and beyond nation states. Civil society must be mobilized on a global scale. Businesses must be incentivized to do more for tangible climate action. The ongoing efforts to promote environmental, societal and corporate governance (ESG) compliance will be helpful in this regard. The tripartite partnership between the local governments, businesses and civil society can be the first step to steer national governments toward a new course.

Kim Won-soo is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and the High Representative for Disarmament. He is now a chair professor of Kyung Hee University in Korea.