Sober messages from American election, our tasks

 

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election came out much earlier than widely predicted. To the big surprise of most observers, it was a sweeping victory for former President Donald Trump. He made a very rare comeback to a nonconsecutive term, second in the U.S. electoral history, 132 years after the 1892 election. He also made history once again, being the oldest ever to be elected. The Republican Party is also set to control both houses of Congress.

This outcome defies most opinion polls and predictions by experts. Pollsters largely failed to capture the so-called "shy Trump" voters again despite their efforts to rectify what they missed twice in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The "hidden Harris" voters turned out to be marginal as compared to the "shy Trump" ones. This reveals the limitations of opinion polls in reading the voters' minds, which are almost equally divided and polarized on opposite ends. Challenges become even greater when the outcome is decided by a small percentage of swing votes within the margin of error of polls.

Trump's reelection has sent out deeply reverberating messages to the whole world. Almost all countries in the Global West, East and South will be busy pondering what Trump 2.0 will mean for them and figuring out what should be the coping strategy. The following three messages stand out.

First and foremost is on the domestic front. This election was the popular verdict on the economic performance under the Biden administration. The famous saying "It's the economy, stupid" has proved to be a factor again this time. Throughout the history of the American presidential elections, inflation has been the spoiler to the sitting presidency seeking reelection. Although President Joe Biden gave up the race, the voters perceived his successor candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, as part of the Biden team. It was intrinsically difficult for Harris to distinguish herself from the Biden legacy. In a larger sense, it was a repeat of the 2020 election when the voters turned against the seemingly poor performance of Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a corollary to this, the second message is on the international economic front. Trade protectionism and beggar thy neighbor behavior are likely to rise under the slogans of "America First" and "Make America Great Again." Throughout the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly threatened to levy customs duties universal against all countries and much higher against China. He also threatened to cut subsidies for foreign companies investing in the United States. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, however, these threats will be harder to implement in reality than said. Any protectionist measures are likely to bring about negative consequences, ultimately hurting the U.S. economy as well.

Thirdly, on international geopolitics. Trump 2.0 will mean resuming the U.S. retreat from global leadership. Under the Biden administration, this trend has slowed down, but not stopped either, as shown in the abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2020. The pace of the retreat is bound to be accelerated under Trump 2.0, starting from the re-withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Multilateralism will be put under greater stress. Unilateralism and bilateralism will become the main tools of U.S. diplomacy, while minilateral or plural-lateral formats will be selectively used. The alliance relationship is also likely to face pressure for rebalancing.

This trend of American retreat will spur the geopolitical tectonic shifts along the fault lines between the Global West and East. A global arc of instability may emerge from Eastern Europe, Caucasus, the Middle East and South Asia to the South and East China Seas and the Korean Peninsula. Players seeking to change the status quo along this arc will be tempted to exploit the perceived power vacuum to their advantage. It will heighten the likelihood of conflict escalation involving major powers by miscalculation, misunderstanding or miscommunication.

These sober messages will be analyzed carefully and watched closely around the world. Trump succeeded in persuading Americans to vote for him with his rhetoric of promises to get jobs back home. His unconventional style proved to be much more effective as a challenger rather than the incumbent. But it remains to be seen whether and how he will and can translate his words into reality. As shown in his first term, the devil is always in the details. Now that he is heading back to the White House, the burden of proof will be on him.

We should not be over-alarmed nor presumptive about what policies will be ultimately taken by the second Trump administration. We must be coolheaded in analyzing the above messages and thinking ahead about our options. We must consider all options on the table with their pros and cons carefully weighed. Last but not least, we must be proactive in reaching out to the new U.S. administration. And we must do so, whenever necessary and feasible, in concert with our allies and partners.

Kim Won-soo is the former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs. He is now a chair professor at Kyung Hee University.