Where is America heading with the election?

The U.S. presidential election is around the corner. It is too tight to predict who will win. Its result will be watched by the whole world, marking a climax of the super election year of 2024. This year about 70 elections are being held around the globe.

This time, due to the age-old peculiar electoral system, the election is being fought in seven swing states. The election results of the other 43 states are a foregone conclusion. Opinion polls in the three Rustbelt and four Sunbelt states show the two candidates’ support bases are virtually neck-and-neck. The remaining two weeks look short. But some unexpected things can happen to sway voters in the swing states. It will not be surprising at all whoever of the two wins eventually. But the repercussions of the election results, particularly if former President Donald Trump loses, will stay long with ensuing contestations and challenges.

One may wonder how and why this is happening in America, the birthplace of a role model for modern democracy. Here are three discernible but mutually reinforcing factors at work.

Firstly, America is divided. The United States does not look united any longer. Red and blue states are entrenched with the number of the swing states decreasing over time. Inequality is growing, with the poor becoming poorer and the rich richer. Radical forces are gaining ground in the two main parties, with the middle-of-the-road moderates retreating. Populism is rising with the polarization of society. The complicated web of diverse identity politics is intensifying along race, gender, religion and ideology lines. These are symptomatic of a malaise in the American political model. An internally divided America weakens its external appeal and influence.

Secondly, America is fatigued. America has performed the self-assumed role as the world’s police for the last eight decades since the end of World War II. Now it seems to feel overstretched abroad and be at a loss with the rapidly changing world. America’s innovative and intellectual leadership shows signs of waning when it is needed most. With that, the institutional deficit is growing with emerging technologies such as AI and biotech advancing at a frog’s pace while regulations are moving at a snail’s pace. Weakened American leadership is also bad news for the world at a time of multiple existential threats such as the climate crisis and multiple wars. An inward-looking America makes it harder for the rest of the world to mitigate the existential risks and respond to the consequences of geopolitical upheavals.

Thirdly, America is discomforted. Over the last several years, America enjoyed the unchallenged No. 1 power position in global politics. It is now being challenged by the rise of China. American dominance is also declining in relative terms vis-à-vis its allies in the Global West and emerging economies in the Global South. America’s leverage to contain China’s rise is limited due to the interconnected value chains of the world, unlike the Cold War era. America wants to stay No.1. But hegemonic competition with China is not cost-free for America. An uncomfortable America puts the rest of the world, including, in particular, its allies, in an awkward position since China has become the largest trading partner with many of these states.

These factors are structural. We must take them as long-term independent variables. Trump is not the cause but the symptom of these factors. If Trump wins, these factors will be on full display under his "Make America Great Again" slogan. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, her presidency will be constrained by these factors in devising and executing foreign policies.

These factors together mean America is on a long-term retreat from overseas commitments and global leadership. A retreating America means greater uncertainty for the rest of the world in times of great turbulence.

First of all, U.S. allies need to think together about how to hedge the long-term risks arising from structural factors associated with a retreating America. They also need a collective strategy to mitigate short-term risks in the case of Trump 2.0.

Secondly, a greater voice is expected to come from the majority of states in the Global South on the future direction of global governance. The U.S.-led multilateralism is under stress. It will be supplemented by a complex web of multilayered inter-state collaboration in the form of minilateralism and plurilateralism. It is likely to be a diverse ecosystem of institutions, networks and processes, cutting across the conventional geopolitical fault lines of the Global West, East and South. This journey in search of a new global governance will be challenging. Korea is well-placed to contribute by playing a bridging role with creative out-of-the-box thinking.

Kim Won-soo is the former Under Secretary-General of the United Nations and the High Representative for Disarmament. He is now a chair professor at Kyung Hee University.