World wars and domestic dysfunction

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia has directly challenged arrangements that have helped to secure peace for over 70 years. The world will be safer if Russia is soundly defeated on the battlefield than it will be in the event of an ambiguous outcome.

Ukraine's need is all the more urgent because the United States is entering an election cycle that could soon reduce U.S. foreign policy engagement or ultimately result in a more inward-looking administration in Washington.

While much of the world hopes Kyiv can make faster military advances or reach a deal with Moscow to stop the fighting, neither prospect is realistic at the moment.

Putin has shown no interest in compromising or ending his invasion, and he clearly hopes that Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and cut off aid to Ukraine.

On July 12, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview made remarks regarding the “stubborn desire of Kyiv and its Western curators to escalate hostilities,“ and how the West had “arrogantly rejected” Russia’s desire for security guarantees on its western borders.

Lavrov made clear that “the aggressive steps of unfriendly states pose an existential threat to Russia …. we will have to defend our right to free and sovereign development by all available means.”

To do so Russia has shifted its military strategy to a strategic defense. The Kremlin aimed to create a “frozen conflict,” which it could claim as a victory by securing a land bridge to Crimea and demonstrating the limits of Western, specifically American, resolve. Russia’s strategy now is not to outlast Kyiv but Washington.

Ukraine’s definition of victory is regaining its territorial integrity to the internationally agreed upon borders of 1991; using frozen Russian assets to pay for post-war reconstruction; obtaining justice and accountability for Russian war crimes in its territory; and entering NATO to provide security for the future.

While U.S. President Joe Biden states that the U.S. will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” he has yet to articulate the exact foreign policy goals he hopes to achieve by this.

After twenty months of war, its about time the Biden administration explained to the American people, its allies, and the Ukrainians what they can expect and make the same clear to the Kremlin.

The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, would appear to have put Ukraine on the back burner for the moment, but viewing these wars as separate from each other would be a mistake.

What the wars in Ukraine and Israel have in common is that they are both the result of state-sponsored terrorism. In Ukraine's case, Russia is the main actor. And in Israel, Iran is acting through Hamas.

Indeed, the skill and competence of Hamas’ attacks couldn't have been acheived without Iran’s funding, weapons, training, and intelligence. And without its deepening partnership with Russia and China, Iran would be less emboldened to do so.

Moreover, Putin and Xi in their meeting in March of this year said that they intended to replace the global system of rules and institutions, established by the United States and its partners after World War II, with something more to their own liking.

Xi told Putin, “Right now there are changes ― the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years ― and we are the ones driving these changes together.”

“The strategic and political point is that the return of war against Israel isn’t an isolated event,” wrote the Wall Street Journal in a lead editorial on Oct. 9, under the provocative headline “Wake Up Washington.”

Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic, “The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Hamas surprise attack on Israeli citizens are both blatant rejections of [the] rules-based order, and they herald something new. Both aggressors have developed a sophisticated, militarized, modern form of terrorism, and they do not feel apologetic or embarrassed about this at all.”

Biden shouldn’t wait to deliver his Ukraine speech, and he should broaden and integrate it to the Hamas attack on Israel, making clear that in both cases, international crimes are being committed by two countries that need to be held accountable. He should also warn that China, which is supporting both Russia and Iran, may choose to exploit this moment of perceived U.S. weakness in the Pacific, with specific danger to Taiwan.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, writing in Foreign Affairs, provided the disturbing global context for domestic dysfunction, caused by partisan politics in Washington, which will only grow worse in the election year of 2024.

“The United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever,” he writes. Never before has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time -- Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran -- whose collective nuclear arsenal could within a few years be nearly double the size of its own.”

Gates worries “that at the very moment that events demand a strong coherent response from the United States, the country cannot provide one.” An extreme minority in the Congress was able to dismiss, for the first time in the history of the United States, the Speaker of the House and disrupt the normal workings of the political system of the country.

Partisan politics that disrupts the normal running of a country seems to be contagious. South Koreans are frustrated to the point of despair by the words and deeds of extreme partisan politics being played out in the National Assembly.

A fool only realizes his mistakes through personal experience, while a wise person learns from the mistakes of others. I sincerely hope that South Korean politicians learn from what is happening in Ukraine and Israel, and prepare for an emboldened North Korea making a decision that could threaten our national survival.

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), a former lawmaker, is chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project and a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.