Who's next?

By John Burton

What type of policy on North Korea will the Democrats pursue if they defeat U.S. President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election? It is a hard question to answer. For one thing, foreign policy has been scarcely discussed during the current Democrat presidential primary campaign and North Korea even less so. Instead, the more than 20 primary candidates have focused their attention on domestic issues from healthcare to immigration policy.

But several broad trends could be detected among the Democratic candidates as the North Korea nuclear crisis evolved over the course of Trump's presidency, based on their statements made at the time.

In 2017 and early 2018, during Trump's “fire and fury” phase when he was threatening North Korea with a military strike if Pyongyang refused to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, most of the candidates urged caution.

In a letter sent to Trump in February 2018, 18 senators said they were “deeply concerned about the potential consequences of a preemptive military strike on North Korea and the risks of miscalculation and retaliation.” Among those signing the letter were Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, all leading contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But when Trump suddenly switched gears and agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June 2018, many of these same candidates expressed skepticism about his efforts.

Warren said, “This administration's success will be judged on whether it can eliminate Kim's nuclear weapons and verify they are gone. I want to see the president succeed, but a handshake is no substitute for a binding, verifiable deal.”

Most of the mainstream candidates reflect the views of Washington's entrenched foreign policy establishment, which has criticized Trump's engagement with North Korea as ineffective and bordering on the immoral. They see Trump's handling of North Korea as a vulnerable target for criticism.

“This president should take the North Korean nuclear threat and its crimes against humanity seriously,” tweeted Harris after Trump's latest meeting with Kim at the DMZ in late June. “Our security and our values are at stake.”

Joe Biden, the Democratic frontrunner, has dismissed Kim as a “thug” and said Trump has “rushed to legitimize a dictator” in his talks with the North Korean leader.

Despite the summits, outreach and effusive praise from Trump, “we still don't have a single commitment from North Korea,” said Biden in a statement at the beginning of July. “If anything, the situation has gotten worse. North Korea has continued to churn out fissile material and is no longer an isolated pariah on the world stage.”

Biden's new foreign policy adviser is Nicholas Burns, a stalwart of the foreign policy establishment. Burns worked on the National Security Council under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton and later held the third highest post at the U.S. State Department under President George W. Bush.

Some progressive Democrats, such as Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, hold more isolationist views, similar to those of Trump. They have criticized the interventionist foreign policy of President Barack Obama, under whom Biden served as vice president, as recklessly promoting regime change and conducting preventive wars, particularly in the Middle East.

The most prominent progressive in the race has been Sanders, who has supported Trump's diplomacy with North Korea despite vehemently disagreeing with the U.S. president on almost every other issue.

Last year, Sanders praised the Singapore summit as “a positive step in de-escalating tensions between our countries, addressing the threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons and moving toward a more peaceful future.”

Sanders again did not fault Trump for meeting Kim at the DMZ, although he added that the State Department needed to play a more central role in moving forward diplomatic discussions.

Among Sanders' top foreign policy advisers is Suzanne DiMaggio from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has held back channel discussions with North Korean officials.

The most interesting case involves Warren, who is normally regarded as a leading progressive on domestic issues. “Once Warren's foreign policy is scrutinized, her status as a progressive champion starts to wither,” the left-leaning magazine, In These Times, noted.

Warren's foreign policy adviser, Sasha Baker, is another product of the Washington foreign policy establishment, having served as deputy chief of staff to U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter in the Obama administration.

Warren, who has supported stronger sanctions against North Korea, again criticized Trump when he met Kim at the DMZ. “Our president shouldn't be squandering American influence on photo ops and exchanging love letters with a ruthless dictator,” she tweeted.

With the exception of Sanders, the next Democratic candidate will likely pursue a more hardline policy on North Korea if elected to the White House in 2020. If Kim believes Trump is in danger of losing, perhaps he should try to secure a deal as quickly as possible before then.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.