Trump's Korea contradictions

By John Burton

What is fascinating in analyzing the forthcoming Trump presidency is how many of his policy goals contradict each other, which makes it harder to achieve any or most of them. North Korea provides a perfect case in point.

Kim Jong-un’s warning in his New Year’s address that Pyongyang might soon test an ICBM missile brought forth the Twitter response by Trump that “It won’t happen,” before the president-elect castigated China for failing to apply tougher sanctions against North Korea.

The only effective way to implement sanctions is to win the cooperation of Beijing in enforcing them.But Trump appears intent in going out of his way to alienate China by threatening, for example, to impose tariffs on its exports to the U.S.

Sino-American ties also look set to deteriorate over such issues as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Trump’s policy of confrontation makes it less likely that China will be willing to press North Korea to denuclearize.

Although it has received less attention in the U.S., Trump’s policy also threatens to damage relations with Seoul at a time when their ties should be strengthened to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.

Trump’s criticism of U.S. trade policy during the campaign has raised concerns about the future of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, although talk that he may try to withdraw or renegotiate the agreement seem to be premature.

But his team of senior trade officials has a strong protectionist hue to them. Seoul may take some hope in the fact, however, that Wilbur Ross, who has been nominated as U.S. Secretary of Commerce, is familiar with Korea, having conducted several takeover deals in the aftermath of the 1997 financial crisis.

There is also growing concern that Korea may also be labeled a currency manipulator since it meets at least two out of three criteria under U.S. Treasury rules, including having a bilateral trade surplus in excess of $20 billion and a current account surplus in excess of 3 percent of gross domestic product. This issue could receive increased focus in coming month after the annual U.S. trade statistics for 2016 are released, which is likely to show an increased bilateral trade surplus in Korea’s favor, well above the $20 billion threshold.

In addition, Trump’s trade actions could affect the supply network of Korean companies in North America, since Samsung and LG among others have established factories in Mexico, which could be subject to tougher trade restrictions.

Trump’ s demand that Seoul should contributed more to the deployment of U.S. troops is likely to prove another irritant in bilateral relations. This issue will receive increased attention since the Washington and Seoul must renegotiate the terms of their defense burden sharing agreement by 2018.

The key question is if Korea refuses to pay what Trump believes it must, will the U.S. president follow through on his threat to reduce or withdraw U.S. troops, which in turn would weaken the defense alliance against Pyongyang?

A tough approach by the Trump administration on trade and defense spending issue would likely feed a growing anti-American sentiment in Korea and contribute to the election of a center-left president to succeed Park Geun-hye, placing a further strain on bilateral relations.

Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae-myung, the leading opposition presidential candidates, have both suggested a return to an engagement policy with Pyongyang that might weaken international sanctions policy.

Seoul might resume a pivot toward China, Korea’s largest trading partner, in the face of U.S. protectionism. For example, Korea would likely push ahead with joining the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is meant to reduce trade barriers in Asia.

A new and more nationalist left-wing government might abandon plans to deploy the THAAD anti-missile system in face of Chinese opposition, while it might also question recent moves to promote closer defense cooperation with Japan, such as the recent intelligence-sharing agreement, due to “comfort women” issue.

Trump’s rhetoric is now creating a mirror image in Korea with the growing popularity of Lee Jae-myung, the populist mayor Seongnam, who wants to reduce spending on U.S. troops and possibly remove them, while calling for a renegotiation of the trade pact with the U.S. because he thinks it is unfair to Korea’s interests.

At a time when a concerted, coordinated policy toward North Korea is necessary, Trump appears to have painted himself into a corner when it comes to the Korean peninsula. His utterances on Twitter and elsewhere underscore the fact that he is likely to be a reactive president when it comes to events overseas and that is likely to lead to bad policies.

John Burton, a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Seoul-based independent journalist and media consultant. He can be reached at johnburtonft@yahoo.com.