North Korea's `Game of Thrones'

By Jason Lim

A few months ago, I wrote about two widespread cognitive biases about North Korea that tend to mislead us when making policy decisions about North Korea.

One, that North Korea is a one-party, socialist dictatorship like the former Soviet Union or today’s China, with internal decision-making dynamics similar to what we see in those systems. Wrong. North Korea is still essentially a monarchy with hereditary kings who rule in conjunction with a tight-knit group of elites mostly interrelated by blood and whose original elite stature was given through their forefathers’ participation in the original struggle that liberated the new country.

Two, that North Korea wants to be a “normal” country as we define a normal country: a member of an international community of nations with open borders and lively interchanges. This, too, is wrong. The last thing that North Korea would want to do is to welcome global forces that would change its current political and socioeconomic status quo, which the ruling elites have carefully and meticulously built up over the past few decades as a means to keep themselves at the apex.

The two biases are actually symptoms of a single underlying diagnosis. North Korea is a country permanently and intentionally living in the past. It’s not only backward, but also backward looking.

In that context, the assassination of Kim Jong-nam, the older half-brother of Kim Jong-eun, is a very ordinary by-product of a typical hereditary succession that Koreans have witnessed hundreds of times throughout its history. Although these two Kims are called brothers, they’ve only been rivals for the throne ever since they became conscious of each other’s existence.

The elevation of the third son by Kim Jong-il as the successor went against the traditional protocol of anointing the eldest son as the crown-prince. The throne was Kim Jong-nam’s to lose, which he seemed to have done. Nevertheless, Jong-nam’s presence meant that he could always form the nucleus of a potential opposition movement within or outside the country, especially if a powerful foreign benefactor such as China chooses to actively support his candidacy. Further, the fact that Kim Jong-un is a product of the second wife also lends more legitimacy to Kim Jong-nam when royal succession protocols are strictly interpreted, making him a constant threat to Kim Jong-un, the current king.

And king he certainly is. More importantly, the person of Kim Jong-un probably places himself in a historical royal context. In other words, he models his decisions and behavior based on lessons that he has learned from well-known historical narratives and figures in Korea’s past. But who? Knowing that would be interesting because we would be able to model his potential next steps based on what type of a historical figure he sees himself being.

A natural candidate, of course, is the greatest king in Korea’s history: Sejong. The historical parallels are there. Kim Jong-un is the third king of a new dynasty, like Sejong was the third “real” king (there was a puppet second king that had no bearing) of the nascent Joseon Dynasty. Both Sejong and Kim Jong-un’s grandfather founded the country after a bloody upheaval _ both were celebrated as military heroes. Both Sejong and Kim Jong-un’s father were the real builders of the political and military infrastructure that undergirds their respective kingdoms. Both Sejong and Kim Jong-un were chosen above their two older brothers to succeed their fathers as the king. Both Sejong and Kim Jong-un’s father personally oversaw the succession process while alive, grooming their sons into the position.

Granted, these are accidental and superficial similarities. However, human beings always seek meaning in our lives and want to maximize the significance of our own place on earth. Kim Jong-un would naturally choose someone who represents the most grandiose version of who he would want to be. And this someone would necessarily be from Korea’s past.

This might not mean anything. Conversely, it could mean everything. If Kim sees himself fulfilling some destiny as the next King Sejong of the modern era, then it would give us insight into the type of leverage that would be most effective in any eventual negotiations with the North Korean leadership. What would give Kim Jong-un the biggest meaning and most reinforcement to his adopted identity as the next great Korean king? After all, in a monarchy, it’s always what’s most important to the king that’s the key to unlocking the gates of the kingdom.

This recognition is significant because it implies that North Korean leadership’s reference point for its decisions would probably be based on historical precedents, rather than strategic thinking about the future.

Jason Lim is a Washington, D.C.-based expert on innovation, leadership and organizational culture. He has been writing for The Korea Times since 2006. Reach him at jasonlim@msn.com, facebook.com/jasonlimkoreatimes or @jasonlim2012.