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Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul.

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Andrei Lankov

No more sympathies

By Andrei LankovOn Feb.10, President Park Geun-hye declared that the Gaeseong Industrial Complex would be closed. This declaration effectively means that all inter-Korean cooperation has ended, at least for the time being.This decision, in my opinion, is a long-term strategic mistake. However, there is little doubt that the decision is popular ― according to polls, between 55 percent and 67 percent of South Koreans support the decision.One should not be surprised because of this. In recent years, the average South Korean has become annoyed with Pyongyang’s behavior, and has little enthusiasm for inter-Korean cooperation. It is quite difficult to believe that a mere 15 years ago, the South Korean population set great store in intra-Korean cooperation projects which were seen as the start of a bright future for the peninsula, presaging eventual peaceful unification.Such days are long gone indeed. The major force behind the push to cooperate with North Korea used to come from the so-called “386 Generation”: those who were born in 1960s and attended college in the heady

Mar 6, 2016By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Do they believe this?

By Andrei Lankov One question foreigners tend to ask when they read is: “Do they really believe this stuff?” Indeed, many of the often-seen claims in North Korean propaganda look comically implausible or grossly distorted. Thus, one cannot help but wonder whether the North Korean public really takes all of this nonsense seriously.There is no clear-cut answer to the question. Some parts of the official propaganda are embraced by nearly all North Koreans, while other elements are looked upon with a great degree of skepticism. At any rate, we must not oversimplify things and conclude that North Koreans are either the brainwashed battle robots of the Great Kim Dynasty, or alternatively, democratic revolutionaries, merely biding their time.To start with, the North Korean people generally respect and even revere the founder of the country, Generalissimo Kim Il-sung ― who passed away unexpectedly, at the tender age of 82 (in 1994). Official propaganda confidently states that he ― more or less singlehandedly ― brought the entire Japanese Empire to its knees in

Feb 21, 2016By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

The lie? Yes, but a useful one

By Andrei LankovNorth Korea has a reputation for being a strange, unpredictable and irrational place. To some extent, this reputation is well deserved, but sometimes seemingly irrational North Korean actions actually have clear and logical roots ― when seen in the correct light, that being the perspective of the decision-makers themselves.It seems that quite recently we have seen another action of this type. When North Korea had its nuclear test in early January, they declared that they had tested a thermonuclear device (commonly known as a hydrogen bomb).There is hardly any need to venture into the technicalities of nuclear physics. For our purposes it will suffice to say that a hydrogen bomb is far more powerful than a regular nuclear device, but is also far more difficult to develop and use.Thus, the vast majority of outside observers, including in North Korea’s neighbors, are highly skeptical of North Korea’s claim. What’s more, the seismic signature of a thermonuclear bomb blast is very different from a regular nuclear bomb’s, and it did not take lon

Jan 29, 2016By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Importance of education

By Andrei LankovWhen it comes to North Korean education one should admit one important fact: for such a poor country, North Korea has a remarkably well educated populace. North Koreans claim that decades ago, they reached 100 percent literacy, and this is actually very close to the truth.This is one of the advantages of Leninist/Stalinist states, most of which never completely abandon their enlightenment roots, remaining remarkably serious about bringing knowledge (albeit only of the politically correct kind) to the masses. When it came to primary, and to an extent, secondary education, their advantage was being able to ensure that every child could be sent to school.Some critics of communism observed that such concerns were not merely driven by a wish to enlighten the masses, but also to indoctrinate the people. This is a fair remark: school curriculums in the communist bloc have always been politicized. Indeed, North Korean primary school math textbooks continue to ask how many American imperialists were killed by brave North Korean soldiers, and how many South Korean villagers are

Jan 24, 2016By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

The old cycle again...

By Andrei Lankov So, North Korea had another nuclear test on Jan. 6, and the world media is in a state of its usual frenzy. There are talks about provocations, irrational bellicosity and the like, as well as hints at the coming retribution.However, one should be skeptical about these hints and this frenzy in general. Experience tells us that one should not expect anything new. The U.N. Security Council is likely to have another emergency meeting, and rest assured, there will be another resolution condemning North Korean actions, and there will be some additional sanctions. There will also be talk of diplomacy, some of the more dovish foreign policy wonks and politicians will talk of the need to be understanding of North Korea’s special needs and desire for security ― on the assumption that what we really need to do is persuade North Korea that it has nothing to be afraid of.The net result of all these activities is also clear from prior experience: expect no real results. North Korean scientists will continue to work hard, and before too long, there will be a fifth and the

Jan 10, 2016By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Foreign investment in NK

By Andrei Lankov In late November, a large Egyptian telecom and construction company published a quarterly report. Orascom, the company in question, admitted in this document that “in the group’s management view, the control over the Koryolink’s activities was lost.” Koryolink is the Orascom venture in North Korea, and this short statement is clearly a sign that the investment project in this small East Asian country had gone seriously wrong.However, experienced observers of North Korea were not surprised by this news. As a matter of fact, it was expected and, indeed, predicted in the narrow circle of NK watchers.Orascom and a North Korean government telecom company created Koryolink as a joint venture in 2008. Its task was to rollout a mobile network. The project success exceeded all expectations, with the number of subscribers reaching three million.In a sense, Orascom got off lucky: contrary to widespread perceptions to, the North Korean economy has grown significantly in the last decade, largely due to nascent market forces that remain hidden behind t

Dec 27, 2015By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Crying wolf again?

By Andrei Lankov The North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently surprised the world (well, the part of the world which cares to take notice) by openly claiming that his country is capable of producing not only nuclear but also thermonuclear weapons.For those of our readers who are not up on nuclear physics, it makes sense to remind them that thermonuclear weapons, often called hydrogen bombs (H-bomb), are based on the principles of nuclear fusion and tend to be far more powerful than regular nuclear devices.The world remains unimpressed. Most experts do not believe what the supreme leader has said, they think he is bluffing.There is good reason to think so. First, the H-bomb is far more difficult to build than the nuclear devices North Korea has thus far tested. As a matter of fact, none of the “new nuclear powers” (Pakistan, India and Israel) have tried to acquire this technology. Their reluctance is easy to understand: for countries without a pressing need, the cost-benefit is not particularly impressive.Indeed, while an H-bomb is significantly more powerful, the pos

Dec 13, 2015By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

See no good, hear no good ...

By  Andrei Lankov The world’s media is a strange universe in which the supposedly biggest news stories are forgotten after a few months, and many statements are proven wrong by subsequent events ― but who cares?Reporting on North Korea gives us many examples of how peculiar a media picture of the world can become. More or less every year (well, every second year) the world’s newspapers in spring or early summer predict gloom and doom in North Korea ― usually anticipating that something akin to the disastrous famine of the 1990s might occur again. By autumn, nothing happens, but by that time the earlier gloomy predictions are safely forgotten ― and, of course, the absence of a widely predicted famine, unlike an actual famine, is not newsworthy.This year was no exception. Do you remember what the world’s media wrote about North Korea in June? Merely five months ago, I mean? Well, let me remind you: “North Korea's historic drought expected to cause famine, says UN” (CNN, 25 June); “North Korea’s ‘Worst Drought’ Threatens Fa

Nov 29, 2015By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Some people are more equal

By Andrei Lankov Few analysts would deny that Kim Jong-un’s rule has been marked by continued economic growth. The exact growth rate is uncertain, but it is clear that North Korea, while still very poor, is becoming less and less economically impoverished and desperate.Much of this growth is driven by the unacknowledged but powerful revival of the market economy in North Korea over the last 15 years. As everybody knows, a market economy brings economic growth, but if unchecked by the state, it also brings remarkable levels of material inequality.One should not be surprised that North Korea is becoming both more affluent (or should we say, less destitute?) and more unequal. People involved in the black or grey private economy often run large-scale operations such as bus companies, fishing and even mining. They are getting richer.This does not mean that commoners are getting poorer. By all accounts, the income of less successful North Koreans is growing, too. But the gap between the rich and poor is large and widening.Since pretty much all market income is unofficial and not

Nov 15, 2015By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Friends again?

By Andrei LankovOn Oct. 10, the North Korean capital witnessed the largest military parade in its history. It was held to celebrate the putative 70th anniversary of the founding of the Korean Worker’s Party. The presence of a large Chinese delegation headed by Liu Yunshan was perhaps the most significant group visiting from overseas. Liu is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, the highest official from China to visit North Korea since Kim Jong-un became leader in Pyongyang.Liu and his delegation were given the full red-carpet treatment and Kim spent a lot of time chatting to his special guest. Liu also delivered a personal letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping. The letter was lengthy and warm, presenting a marked contrast from the terse and short congratulatory notes exchanged by Pyongyang and Beijing over the last few years.Indeed, since 2012, relations between the two neighbouring countries, technically allies, have hit a nadir. Their relations have not been this bad since the early 1990s. Once thriving official exchanges came to a

Nov 1, 2015By Andrei Lankov
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