Opinion - The Korea Times

Anti-Americanism

By Andrei Lankov It requires little imagination to predict the response of South Korean public opinion by the recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who suddenly, with apparent disregard for the earlier agreements and past precedents, demanded a $1 billion payment for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment in Korea. What was on the cusp of completion now seems quite uncertain and more problematic now, and a new forthcoming wave of anti-U.S. sentiment should catch no one off-guard.But what of the history of anti-Americanism in South Korea? How did the (South) Korean public perceive the U.S. when first relations were first established in 1882, and how has that evolved?We can safely omit an in-depth analysis over the Japanese colonial period (1910-45). It will suffice to mention that Koreans prior to 1945, unless immersed in Japanese imperial propaganda, tended to look at the U.S. quite favorably. The old adage “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” is useful to understand why Koreans looked toward the U.S. with great expectations.The defeat o

May 14, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

China: an unnoticed giant

By Andrei LankovThe relations between China and South Korea are bad. In March a poll indicated China overtook Japan as Korea’s most disliked foreign nation. The reason is simple: the South Korean decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system annoyed China which reacted with introducing the “unofficial” but biting sanctions against South Korean companies. This is the worst situation since 1992.But hang on, why do we mention 1992 as a starting point? Is not it the case that for millennia Korea and China have lived side by side, maintaining sometimes uneasy but always close relations?Yes, the history of relations between the two goes back a few thousand years, and it will be only a major exaggeration to say the Korean state emerged and grew in the giant shadow of China, under its immense influence. However, after the Opium Wars of the 1840-60s, China became a victim of Western imperialism and disintegrated in the collapse and chaos, only to be reunited by Mao’s Communists in 1949 as a poor authoritarian country.Throughout the Chinese “century of crisi

Apr 30, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

A note to my readers

By Andrei LankovDear readers, I am sorry to say so, but this seems to be the last regular column on North Korea I shall publish in The Korea Times. Professional and personal issues have left me little choice but to cut down on the amount of journalistic writing, and from now on, I will write on North Korea only for some other specialized websites.The column has been around for nearly 15 years, with hundreds of pieces published by The Korean Times. I would like to express my gratitude to my editors and, of course, my readers. However, I will continue to contribute articles on topics that are not related to North Korea. Leaving the hospitable pages of The Korea Times as a regular columnist, I have to assure my readers that the topic of North Korea is not going anywhere. North Korea’s future is difficult to predict, but all conceivable scenarios are likely to be painful and costly ― both for the North Koreans and their neighbors.It is absolutely possible that North Korea will become another “development dictatorship” in East Asia ― this seems to be what its current lea

Apr 16, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

Fate of a fishmonger

By Andrei LankovLet’s introduce Ms. Yi (not her real name), one of many North Korean entrepreneurs and one of the pioneers of the country’s private economy.Ms. Yi and her husband began their operations in the late 1980s, soon after their marriage. Private enterprises began to pop up at the time despite the anti-capitalist founding father of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, still at the helm. This was especially true for two sectors―retail and fishing―in particular where the North Korean market economy was born.Upon marriage Ms. Yi moved to her husband’s hometown, a small fishing village on the Yellow Sea coast. The newlyweds soon discovered that fish, clams and sea cucumber were a virtual gold mine. In 1988 they used their savings to purchase (or rather, order) a fishing boat, the first privately built vessel in their town. The order was unofficial: the couple visited a small local shipyard, explained what they needed, and paid money. Ms. Yi's boat was essentially a floating base for divers who were harvesting sea cucumber. It was largely she who dealt with the business, s

Mar 19, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

Taste of strawberries

By Andrei Lankov A new item in North Korean markets has recently become all the rage ― strawberries. The last two or three years have been marked by a proliferation of green houses, where North Korean farmers produce fruits once unheard of.The green house industry in North Korea is private, and its emergence was largely enabled by the Kim Jong-un agricultural reforms. Now, farmers can negotiate deals with agricultural cooperatives and rent land where they can erect greenhouses. Building such a facility is not cheap. Strawberries and melons produced there are still expensive enough to be within the reach of only the top quarter of income earners. One should remember, however the number of people who were able to taste such delicious produce was measured in fractions of one percent, so the improvement is dramatic.Indeed, when it comes to the economy of North Korea, much good news has emerged recently. In spite of all the talk about floods and droughts, there are no widespread shortages of food any more. Grain prices have been stable for years. There is a lot of construction going

Mar 5, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

North Korea's elite

By Andrei LankovAs early as the 1980s, many observers both in and outside the communist bloc assumed North Korea, with its hereditary rule, grossly inefficient economy, and comedic personality cult propaganda was quite fragile. However, they were all proven wrong: the communist regimes in Europe have long disappeared, while North Korea is alive, and is still run by the same “one hundred families,” who are the same that ran the country some forty years ago.There are several reasons why North Korea has demonstrated such outstanding staying power. Arguably, the unity of the NK ruling elite is among the most important factors that have enabled such longevity.Indeed, contrary to conventional thinking, revolutions seldom, if ever, are start by the downtrodden masses. The revolutionary impulse always originates from the educated, well-connected, and powerful, some of whom come to believe things can and should be done differently. When revolution happens, it frequently entails only the top layer of the upper crust being removed, replaced by persons from the lower echelons of the

Feb 19, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

Lords of money, lords in offices

By Andrei LankovMost first-time Western visitors to Pyongyang tend to come back somewhat surprised. They had expected to see the very embodiment of a Stalinist hell. Well, you know the picture: soldiers on every street corner sporting machineguns, ready to mow down the masses, pedestrians in colorless clothing slowly moving amidst mammoth, concrete shells of buildings. Instead, what they see is a city of reasonably well-attired residents, a booming restaurant culture, and a diverse array of major Western brands on sale, all purchased with relative ease (once you have the money, of course).Witnessing North Koreans enjoy fine dining while sporting Chanel handbags can be rather shocking. This often leads to the wrong conclusions: these people must all be “corrupt officials.” It follows that anyone with money is in bed with the regime or, at the very least, has enough access to siphon money from state coffers enabling an opulent lifestyle. There are seeds of truth in such assumptions, but to ascribe such a degree of corruption to all North Koreans, even those in Pyongyang is

Feb 5, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

A bit of (realistic) pessimism

By Andrei LankovThe election of Donald Trump who, in spite of his hard-living tendencies, has been talking about meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for hamburgers, led to an increase in talks about a deal between Pyongyang and Washington.Nonetheless, as somebody who has dealt with North Korea for some 30 years, I have a rather pessimistic, if realistic, answer to the perennial question: “What could bring about a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem?” My answer is simple: If by ‘solution’ one means ‘complete denuclearization of North Korea,’ nothing short of a military strike or a revolution in Pyongyang.Decades of experience has demonstrated neither sanctions nor negotiations will work. Both have been tried, and both failed, in rather spectacular fashion.North Korean decision makers see nuclear weapons as their only security guarantee, an absolute deterrent, an infallible defense against would-be attackers. It means not only insulation from a foreign attack, but also increases the chances of surviving a major domestic crisis. The assum

Jan 22, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

Welcome to the new world

By Andrei LankovSouth Korean tour operators, duty-free shop managers and restaurant owners are becoming uneasy ― they are losing what for years have been their most-profitable clientele. The Chinese are not coming in the large numbers to which the industry is accustomed.It is an open secret what has happened. In July 2016 the ROK government confirmed its willingness to deploy the THAAD missile defense system, greatly enraging Beijing. Shortly after, Chinese tour agencies began to get phone calls from local officials who advised them to reduce the number of Chinese nationals they send to South Korea.Chinese business people understand that it is unwise to ignore such warnings. Thus the tour agencies followed the advice ― as the Korean tourist industry soon discovered.The impact has been felt in major tourist areas in Seoul, which for years were packed with Chinese tourists. However, it would be pointless for the ROK embassy to lodge an official complaint. Beijing can easily deny it has taken any action one way or another, and South Korea cannot prove anything.South Korean actors, actre

Jan 8, 2017By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

North Korea: poor and aging

By Andrei LankovRecent statistics on North Korea leave little doubt: in addition to being  some 15-20 times poorer than its southern neighbor, North Korea has a similar population structure and increasingly suffers from problems we usually associate with more developed societies – low birth rates and an aging population.Demographics is one of only a small handful of fields where North Korea watchers can rely on reasonably good information. The local government releases virtually no usable data or statistics on anything else to the public. It is useful to remember that most of the data related to the North Korean economy, for example trade volume with China or per capita GDP, is pure guesswork of varying degrees of plausibility. However, demographics are different: due to unknown reasons, North Korean authorities systematically publish their census data, and they have even provided foreign experts with access to their internal population statistics.Skeptics may understandably believe the data to be inaccurate, doctored, or a mix of the two. However, the demographic data put

Dec 25, 2016By Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov

Read more

Anti-Americanism

China: an unnoticed giant

A note to my readers

Fate of a fishmonger

Taste of strawberries

North Korea's elite

Lords of money, lords in offices

A bit of (realistic) pessimism

Welcome to the new world

North Korea: poor and aging

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