Koreans' opinion of US

A recent opinion poll by the Pew Research Center, a globally respected, nonpartisan research organization, shows that Korean sentiment toward the United States has fallen to its lowest level in more than two decades.

Since Pew began tracking Korean views of the U.S. in the early aughts, Koreans have generally maintained a highly favorable opinion of their American ally. But this year, 55 percent of Korean respondents expressed an unfavorable view of the United States, compared with 45 percent who viewed it favorably.

I try not to read too much into opinion polls, which can be capricious and reflect temporary moods. Still, I cannot help taking this one seriously because it seems to tell us something about the changing dynamics of U.S.-Korea relations, as well as America’s relationships with its allies more broadly.

First, while many observers seem surprised that Korea, a major U.S. ally, has developed such negative feelings toward its traditionally important partner, I am actually surprised that close to half of Koreans still maintain a favorable view of the United States. Look at Pew’s broader 36-country survey, and the Korean figure looks considerably less serious.

The median share of respondents expressing a favorable view of the U.S. is only 37 percent. In many Western democracies, traditionally among America’s closest allies, favorability is dismal. In France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, only 20 to 30 percent have a favorable opinion of the United States. Canada, perhaps the closest American partner historically, has seen an extraordinary deterioration in public sentiment and many there even consider the U.S. an “enemy.” In that context, Korea’s 45 percent favorable rating does not seem particularly poor.

The more interesting — and potentially more concerning — question is whether this low rating of the United States is becoming structural rather than merely temporary. Korea has experienced waves of anti-American sentiment before. For example, in 1992, the torturing and killing of a Korean sex worker by a U.S. serviceman provoked widespread outrage. In 2002, two Korean schoolgirls were killed by a U.S. Army armored vehicle, and the acquittal of the soldiers involved triggered enormous anti-American demonstrations. Yet those episodes eventually subsided, and Koreans in general continued to hold the United States in high regard. This time may be different.

Much of the world’s, including Korea’s, negative sentiment toward the United States clearly stems from President Donald Trump’s policies and his handling of international affairs. That raises an obvious question: Will favorability recover once Trump is gone? Perhaps. But the damage may extend beyond one president. What seems to be accumulating is not simply dislike of Trump, but distrust of Washington as a reliable partner.

Pew found that only 57 percent of Koreans now regard the U.S. as a reliable partner, a sharp decline from 83 percent in 2022. The share saying the United States contributes to global peace and stability has also fallen dramatically, from 74 percent to 47 percent. The impact of changes Trump caused in security and economic relations with other countries will likely persist for the time being.

For South Korea, the security implications are particularly serious. The Korean Peninsula is not an abstract geopolitical theater. North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, and the U.S. military presence has been a central pillar of South Korea’s security for decades. Yet Washington’s policy has become increasingly difficult for Seoul to predict. Just last week, Trump ordered the reduction of the annual U.S.-South Korean joint military exercise while expressing interest in renewed engagement with Pyongyang. Given what’s happening, it wouldn’t be surprising if Korea seeks greater self-defense reliance and a closer relationship with other countries, including China.

A younger generation of Koreans, meanwhile, may be less likely than their parents and grandparents to associate the U.S. primarily with anti-communism, economic development and protection from North Korea. They may instead grow accustomed to seeing an America that is more transactional, protectionist, unpredictable and even a bully. All these suggest that unfavorability of the U.S. among Koreans may persist over years.

I do not mean that the Korea-U.S. alliance is on the brink of collapse, but it may be entering a different era. Korea can remain firmly allied with the United States while becoming less emotionally attached to it, more skeptical of Washington’s intentions and more determined to prepare for a future in which it cannot always count on American protection.

Min Seong-jae (smin@pace.edu) is a professor of communication and media studies at Pace University in New York.