What lies ahead for China-NK-Russia coalition after Victory Day gathering

Choo Jae-woo

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin participated in a ceremony held in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, known as “Victory Day.”

This marked the first meeting of leaders from the three states since the 1959 military parade commemorating the 10th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. That event put the Cold War dynamics in East Asia on display, while also highlighting solidarity within the communist bloc.

Looking back, that signified the opening stage of the East Asian Cold War. In 1960, Sino-Soviet relations declined significantly. However, in the subsequent year, the three regimes established alliances, resulting in the formation of the “North Korea-China-Soviet Union triangle.” This year's Victory Day ceremony may be history repeating itself, albeit in a new form.

The protocol established by China highlighted this symbolism. Photographs documenting President Xi Jinping’s activities reveal that Putin and Kim were consistently present alongside him. The imagery presented displays more than mere political performance, evoking the symbolism of “Blue Dragon to the left, White Tiger to the right.” The gathering held significant strategic implications, like the 2023 Camp David summit between the leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan. In a significant display of geopolitical alignment, the three nations committed to preserving the liberal international order together. In contrast, the alliance of North Korea, China and Russia announced their determination to champion universal human values, uphold justice and fairness, and foster multilateralism, multipolarity and the democratization of international relations. They emphasized their vision of a shared future for humanity, rooted in the principles of the U.N. Charter and international law.

During the Victory Day banquet, Xi Jinping remarked, "The strength of a moment lies in power, but the outcome of a millennium lies in principle." In essence, the powerful United States may dominate in the short term, but enduring moral principles prevail in the longer view. By this logic, China asserts that history is on their side. Xi’s message emphasized that China's concept of a community with a shared future for mankind is based on principles and justice, not open displays of power. Individuals aligning with China were treated as representing the essence of truth. This stood in stark contrast to U.S. Vice President JD Vance's remarks at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, in which he described U.S.-China competition as a 40-year struggle.

The Victory Day ceremony was a significant moment for the North Korea-China-Russia triangle. By examining historical precedents, they appear determined to avoid errors of the past. All three are nuclear-armed states, and North Korea and Russia have become "blood allies," fighting together in the Ukraine war. Their efforts will now focus on developing capabilities to counter the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alignment, with emphasis on economic cooperation to bolster their collective strength. Kim Jong-un indicated such plans during his visit to Vladivostok in September 2023, as did various joint statements China and Russia have issued since 2021. The 2024 Sino-Russian joint statement, for example, explicitly condemned unilateral sanctions that lack international legal justification or United Nations authorization. This stance suggests a potential future dismissal of Western sanctions imposed on Russia and North Korea, and a commitment to enhancing trilateral economic collaboration. As pandemic restrictions have lifted, North Korea is now positioned to engage economically with both China and Russia.

During Kim's Vladivostok visit in 2023, analysts focused on possible gains in North Korea's nuclear and missile programs from Russia. Minimal attention went to his discussions of economics with Russian counterparts, including President Putin. Now is the time to highlight that North Korea and Russia have agreed to initiate joint projects in construction, tourism and agriculture within the year, if North Korea's COVID-19 situation permits. During President Putin's meeting with Kim, Russia’s deputy prime minister and leaders of the ministries of industry, transport and natural resources stood alongside them. President Putin's opening remarks emphasized the need to address economic cooperation, humanitarian concerns and the regional situation, suggesting that economic collaboration was a key focus of discussions between the two parties.

Multiple working-level sessions supported this focus, as did the presence of Russian authorities during Kim's meeting at Khasan with Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of Primorsky Krai, a day before his meeting with Putin. Russia's minister of natural resources and environment, Alexander Kozlov, also chairs the intergovernmental commission on commerce, economy and scientific-technical cooperation with North Korea. According to Russian news agency Interfax and other sources, Kozhemyako posted on Telegram that he and Kim discussed tourism and agricultural initiatives for this year. He added that these measures are related to construction. Reports also suggest that the two nations discussed collaborative agricultural special zones in Primorsky Krai, as well as resuming the Rajin-Khasan railway project and improving tourism and cultural interchange.

The partnership between North Korea, China and Russia is gaining strength, leading to an increase in their bargaining power. They are nuclear states and bound by alliance. Now they want to be economically formidable. Mere economic incentives are no longer enough to bring them to the negotiating table; a more strategic approach is now needed. South Korea should articulate its national interests and objectives with clarity. Vague discussions of peace on the Korean Peninsula are not enough to produce an effective strategy. The current situation indicates a possible future confrontation between blocs. Amid such competition, South Korea must center its strategy on self-reliance. History tends to repeat itself, so it is vital to learn from past experiences in order to improve the effectiveness of future strategies.

Choo Jae-woo is a professor at Kyung Hee University. The views expressed here are his own.