What South Korea’s population crisis can teach the world

Joo Hyung-hwan

In the United States, the Trump administration is considering a suite of pronatalist proposals — many with strong cultural and ideological undertones. Among them are establishing $1,000 "Trump Accounts" for newborns, promoting fertility awareness classes in schools and even awarding medals to mothers of six or more children.

While these proposals are a very good start, they raise a critical question: Why, despite years of public attention, do so many fertility policies fail to deliver results? Too often, governments spread efforts too thin, leaving them lacking strategic focus, integration or long-term commitment.

Korea’s experience offers both a cautionary tale and a potential road map.

In the 1970s, Korea became a global model for population control. Slogans like “Have two children and raise them well” were reinforced by strong incentives. Couples who underwent sterilization were given housing priority, and health insurance covered only up to two children. By 1983, the total fertility rate had dropped from around five children per woman in the early 1960s to below the replacement level of 2.1 — a demographic transition that took over a century in countries like the United Kingdom.

Today, that once-hailed success story casts a long shadow. Korea now has the world’s lowest total fertility rate — 0.72 in 2023. Though it ticked up slightly to 0.75 last year, the long-term trend remains bleak. In a startling reversal, as of 2021, more children under 5 live in North Korea than in the South, despite the North’s population being less than half the size.

Total fertility rates are also declining across Japan, China, Europe and the United States. South Korea is simply reaching this future first with its systemic demographic crisis. Economic growth is projected to stall by the 2040s, with each working-age adult expected to support one elderly person by 2066. Social safety nets, including pensions, health insurance and long-term care, are already under strain.

To reverse the trend, Korea is pursuing a two-track approach: one focused on policy reform, the other on cultural renewal. The government’s goal is to raise the total fertility rate to 1 by 2030 — not through ideology or coercion, but by reshaping everyday life and societal values. These two approaches have started to reverse the total fertility rate, which is projected to reach 0.8 by the end of this year.

Korea has learned that cash incentives alone are not sufficient. While financial support remains crucial, it must be complemented by efforts to reduce the burdens and opportunity costs associated with having and raising children. Korea has therefore strategically chosen to concentrate its resources on three core policy areas: promoting work-life balance, easing child care burdens and ensuring housing stability.

First, in the area of work-life balance, Korea has introduced a new short-term parental leave system. Parental leave benefits have also been increased from an average of 1.125 million Korean won ($825) to 1.925 million won per month for one year, starting in 2025. Recognizing that small and medium-sized enterprises often struggle more, the government is also providing additional support, including a new subsidy to help hire replacement workers when employees take parental leave.

The next key area is reducing the burden of child care. To support parents with diverse needs, Korea is tripling the number of part-time child care providers, expanding nighttime and weekend services and increasing access to home-based care. Access to early childhood education and care is also growing. Kindergartens and day care centers are being integrated under the Ministry of Education, and child care services are now available from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. The share of children in public child care is expected to increase from 40 percent to 50 percent by 2027.

One of Korea’s goals is to ensure that marriage, childbirth and parenting are no longer seen as a penalty. Housing support is being expanded for newlyweds, families with newborns and families with multiple children by increasing housing stock, offering low-interest mortgages with additional rate reductions based on the number of children and easing eligibility requirements. The housing policy reform also improves access to long-term rental housing, allowing families to remain in place as needed or move to larger units when their family size grows.

As the average age of pregnancy and childbirth continues to rise, Korea is also expanding support for fertility treatments. The government now provides virtually unlimited financial coverage for fertility treatments, ensuring that couples are not discouraged from having children due to financial constraints.

Of course, deeper structural issues remain, such as a shortage of decent jobs, high private education costs and excessive population concentration in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. Recognizing that these challenges cannot be resolved overnight, Korea is committed to addressing them consistently with a long-term perspective.

Yet policy alone cannot shift public sentiment. Even in countries where raising children is more affordable, like those in Northern Europe, total fertility rates continue to decline.

Ultimately, people need a deeper answer to a personal question: Why should I have a child?

That answer must go beyond economics. Parenthood must be seen as a source of meaning, connection and joy. It is essential to create a social environment where people can say, “Children are a blessing.” That is why Korea has invested in a national cultural campaign to promote the value of life, family and parenthood. These efforts are led not only by the government but also by business leaders, academics, media figures and religious communities.

A distinctive feature of this approach is strong private-sector leadership. Cultural narratives are being reshaped through entertainment — television dramas and variety shows increasingly depict parenting and family life in a positive light. For example, a recent hit K-drama, "When Life Gives You Tangerines," celebrates large families and the emotional richness of raising children.

To reinforce these values, Korea is organizing joint seminars with broadcasters to build public consensus. The government is also leveraging inclusive tools like roundtables, national citizen councils and advisory boards to reflect a broad range of perspectives and family structures.

To further promote the value of multi-child families, the government plans to introduce fast-track airport departure lanes specifically for families with three or more children. The more inclusive a society’s definition of family becomes, the more support there will be for those who choose to raise children.

To sustain these efforts, Korea is in the process of strengthening population policy governance to deliver whole-of-government, holistic policies on fertility, aging and immigration. Such governance is needed to plan, coordinate and evaluate these policies — one that can implement long-term strategies with consistency and cross-sector collaboration.

As ultra-low fertility and rapid aging present a complex, interconnected crisis impacting the economy, labor force and regional sustainability, a centralized body is essential to align stakeholders, foster cooperation and mobilize all available resources.

Korea’s demographic story is still unfolding. But one thing is already clear: reversing population decline will require more than cash incentives or slogans. It demands structural reform, cultural transformation and sustained political will.

The world should take note.

Joo Hyung-hwan is vice chairman of Korea’s Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy. He served as minister of trade, industry and energy.