Ukraine war: Game, set, match?

U.S. President Donald Trump has had it with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Gone are the days where it appeared that the Russians were ready for a negotiated deal or ceasefire in the bloody Ukraine war. Now Donald Trump has openly said that “Putin has been bullsh---ing him” all along about a much-anticipated agreement.

Trump’s frustration in trying to stop the bloodletting in Ukraine as well as Russia’s escalation of the war has prompted him to sarcastically warn, “Putin talks nice but then bombs everybody in the evening.”

To confront Moscow’s expanding air raids on Kyiv, the Trump administration will send additional U.S. Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine in coordination with NATO. The European allies will pay for the American air defense ordinance being sent to beleaguered Ukraine.

Congress is equally prepared to impose tough enhanced “sledgehammer” sanctions on Russia. Bipartisan Senate legislation cosponsored by Republican Lindsay Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal would dramatically upgrade current economic sanctions on Russia and countries trading with it.

On the House of Representatives side, Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, agreed. “I think sanctions are called for” to “bring an end to this unjust war in Ukraine," he said.

Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, both on the ground and in the air; Moscow’s infantry attacks continue to chip away at Ukrainian territory, while air raids using swarms of drones and ballistic missiles shatter the night sky over Ukrainian cities and towns. Civilians are deliberately targeted in a morbid plan to break morale and to devastate the country through Moscow’s web of Shahed drones and missile strikes.

As summer moves on, the Ukraine stalemate faces three key variables.

First is the new Trump strategy. This is backed up by new NATO resolve both against Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine and to support enhanced defense spending among the 32 members of the alliance. Most NATO members no longer question nor balk at Trump’s longtime demands to boost their defense spending. Beyond Britain, the Baltics and Poland, major players like Germany are expected to step up spending levels to 5 percent of gross domestic product. This was unimaginable even last year.

Next is the increase in North Korean support to Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a three-day visit to North Korea and gained ebullient promises of support from leader Kim Jong-un for additional North Korean combat troops and engineers to support Russia’s frontline units in Ukraine. Last year, Pyongyang sent at least 12,000 troops, and now they are expected to send 6,000 additional forces. More than 12 million 152 mm artillery shells have also been provided to Moscow’s arsenal.

Third is China’s mercurial political and military role. Perhaps this poses the biggest question mark in the geopolitical equation. While Beijing hasn’t been a direct participant in the conflict, the Chinese clearly profit from the ongoing war. Why? Precisely because it ties down American power, depletes U.S. weapons supplies and draws focus away from China. And because it weakens Russia too — a quiet unstated goal of Beijing’s leaders.

Nonetheless, in early 2022, just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a “no limits” partnership with Moscow. Since then, political and economic ties have strengthened.

Just last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi curiously told European Union Foreign Affairs High Representative Kaja Kallas that “Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.” Multiple diplomatic sources say this emerged from a four-hour meeting with Kallas in Brussels, a meeting which “featured tough but respectful exchanges.”

A European Union statement on Ukraine said Kallas “highlighted the serious threat Chinese companies’ support for Russia’s illegal war poses to European security. She urged China to immediately cease all material support that sustains Russia’s military industrial complex and called on China to back a full and unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine.”

Kallas added, “Chinese companies are Moscow’s lifeline to sustain its war against Ukraine.”

We are witnessing a realignment of the geopolitical stars confronting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine — the Trump administration, the U.S. Congress and key NATO allies all working in close coordination to support Ukraine’s freedom and sovereignty.

In a key White House meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump underscored he was “very unhappy” with Russia, reflecting Moscow’s foot-dragging over a Ukraine peace deal. Trump moreover threatened secondary tariffs on Russia of 100 percent if “we don't have a deal within 50 days.”

Ukraine’s fate may rest on these actions.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China."