Caught in the crossfire: What the Israel-Iran crisis means for Seoul

“What happens in the Middle East, stays in the Middle East.”

The Israel-Iran conflict may seem like an issue contained within the Persian Gulf — indeed, to South Korea, the situation may seem far removed from Korean interests. Seoul’s security, economic and diplomatic interests, however, are intricately intertwined with global currents. If anything, the Middle East crisis should give pause for reflection and shed light on South Korea’s delicate geopolitical situation, notably its dependence on international stability and the evolving challenges of balancing national interests with global expectations.

This is no time for Seoul to remain a passive observer.

Washington is already operating at the limits of its strategic bandwidth. The ongoing hostilities in the Middle East could pull U.S. attention further away from festering concerns in East Asia. For Seoul and its like-minded neighbors in the region, it’s less a matter of political optics than a matter of survival and deterrence. Taking its most proximate neighbor, North Korea, as the first example, Pyongyang has a well-documented history of exploiting periods of international turbulence to conduct missile tests, provoke its neighbors or squeeze concessions. It would not be unreasonable to say that for Pyongyang, a U.S. administration focused on escalation in the Persian Gulf could widen the aperture for such opportunities.

From Kim Jong-un’s vantage, there’s another, perhaps more strategically critical signal worth noting. The precision strikes by the U.S. on three key Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan could validate Kim’s longstanding belief that only a credible, fully operational nuclear arsenal can guarantee regime survival. Kim may have viewed the events from the past two weeks as an unequivocal indication to strengthen his country’s nuclear deterrent, lest he face similar consequences down the road. The result? More missile tests, strengthened military cooperation with Russia and an even greater resistance to engagement with the international community.

Notably, however, the Middle East crisis should not only underscore security concerns; the situation also sheds light on South Korea’s global diplomatic posture. Seoul, as a treaty ally of Washington, is generally expected to align and cooperate with broader U.S.-led and international responses to global threats — in the Gulf situation, supporting Israel’s right to self-defense while supporting international norms against state-sponsored violence, nuclear proliferation and violations of the laws of armed conflict.

South Korea’s historical and economic relationship with Tehran adds a delicate layer of complexity to Seoul’s geostrategic stance, however.

Seoul, like many countries, is dependent on crude oil from the Middle East and liquefied natural gas imports via the Strait of Hormuz. The events in the Gulf in the past two weeks have underscored the strategic and economic sensitivities surrounding the world’s most important oil chokepoint — which has now become even more susceptible to potential disruption. Any escalation in the region could spike energy prices and significantly impact the world’s economy, and Seoul is no exception. Consequently, we would see the ripple effects reverberate throughout South Korea’s manufacturing industry, supply chains linked to the global economy and even inflation-sensitive domestic households.

South Korea may lie thousands of kilometers away from the heat of the Israel-Iran conflict. And in some ways, this distance shields Seoul from the immediate fallout of the crisis. Recent geopolitical tides demonstrate, however, that distance does not equate to a credible buffer against instability, however small or sector-specific. As world events have shown in recent years, the intermediate- to long-run ripple effects will undoubtedly cast a shadow over Seoul’s vital interests.

The Middle East crisis also puts Seoul’s middle-power diplomacy under pressure test. South Korea is often looked to as a model middle power due to its contributions to and support for global peacekeeping, commitment to nonproliferation and proactive participation in multilateral institutions. Furthermore, security is becoming increasingly like a two-sided coin: on the one hand, it has become increasingly zero-sum; on the other hand, it is of the most convoluted “grey-zone” kind. This requires countries, including South Korea, to become increasingly adept at juggling traditional alliance commitments with their own national interests.

In effect, the room for quiet neutrality may be narrowing.

However, should South Korea respond to this moment with clarity and agility, it could solidify its credibility as a reliable regional actor and global player. For this to happen, Seoul needs to take less of a responsive posture and assume the role of an influencer, working closely with the U.S. and other like-minded countries, maintaining credible deterrence in the region and engaging in quiet diplomacy to support de-escalation in the Gulf.

If there’s one thing to consider, the Israel-Iran conflict should remind Seoul that in today’s geopolitics, the notion of distance is irrelevant and seriously misplaced. A missile strike in Isfahan can cause disruption in Seoul’s markets. The intricacies of nuclear negotiations with Iran could serve as a real-life war-game exercise for Kim Jong-un’s own strategic calculations. More broadly, an unstable international order could weaken the foundations of Seoul’s own global ambitions.

Amid mounting global uncertainty, South Korea should view the Middle East crisis as an opportunity to recalibrate its posture and reaffirm its strategic foundational interests, beginning with its alliance with the United States. Redefining national interests, the evolving contours of security threats and strategic interdependence requires any country to move beyond the previously defined narrow definition of security and partnerships. For Seoul, this means helping shape the privilege, costs and consequences of being a global player.

Soo Kim is a former CIA analyst and strategic risk consultant.