A chance to challenge Cambodia’s authoritarian turn

Mu Sochua

Later this month, key leaders of the Asia-Pacific will meet at the Nikkei Forum in Tokyo. The event, which presents an opportunity for multilateral discussion on critical issues within the region, including Myanmar, shifting power dynamics, economic resilience and security, will seek to find pathways towards deeper collaboration and prosperity at a time of global uncertainty.

One of the most anticipated speakers at this year’s gathering is Hun Manet, the Cambodian premier who has kept a conspicuously low profile on the international stage since assuming office in August 2023. Unlike his outspoken and strongman-styled father, Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia with an iron grip for over four decades, Manet has curated a more moderate persona and spoken of his ambitions to "safeguard” the nature of his country’s “hard-gained peace” and to “accelerate” its development towards becoming a “high-income” economy.

For many, these words, together with Manet’s schooling in the West, at Bristol University and West Point, aroused optimism that Cambodia would shift track and reverse some of the repressive policies it enacted toward independent journalists, civil society, unions and opposition parties during the era of Hun Sen. There was hope that, under a younger, more internationally minded new leader, Cambodia would pivot away from an inward-looking policy agenda and build out alliances on the world stage.

Evidence from the past 18 months, however, suggests this optimism was misplaced. Instead of halting Cambodia’s slide into outright authoritarianism, Manet has expedited it and moved his country further into the orbit of Beijing. His policies have seen opposition groups banned, independent media kicked out of the country and journalists arrested — including award winning journalist Mech Dara for his reporting on human rights abuses and cybercrime. At the beginning of the year, a former opposition MP, Lim Kimya, was assassinated in the streets of Bangkok, allegedly at the instruction of the regime in Phnom Penh, in what rights groups have called “a significant escalation in the use of transnational repression.”

The risk to neighbors in the Asia-Pacific, who will be granting Manet a platform to spell out his vision for the direction of the region, cannot be understated. They will be giving voice not to an ally, but to the leader of a vassal state, who is set on spreading graft in order to cement his rule.

It is no coincidence that China, and its extensive mafia network, has found a partner in Phnom Penh to expand its multi-billion-dollar global cyber scam operations. Over the course of four decades, Manet’s father Hun Sen created a system where criminality, corruption, cronyism, abuse of power, oppression and repression was given space to grow, aided and underpinned by Chinese investment.

Manet has leaned into this relationship since taking office, courting $1.3 billion in foreign direct investment from Beijing in the first two months of 2024. Projects, including the controversial Dara Sakor resort and the 500 ‘ghost buildings’ of unfinished housing development across Sihanoukville, have not been to the benefit of Cambodians and in many cases have resulted in environmental degradation, forced evictions and exploitative labor conditions. Military relations between Cambodia and China have also deepened, to the alarm of neighbors Thailand and Vietnam. The two have undertaken large-scale joint exercises in the South China Sea, collaborated on the development of the Funan Techo Canal, which will run the length of Cambodia to the Gulf of Thailand, and have permitted the permanent siting of Chinese vessels at the Ream Naval Base.

This makes Cambodia an outlier in the Asia-Pacific. While much of the the region has embraced transparency and openness — Singapore abandoning dynastic succession, Malaysia holding free elections, the Philippines pursuing accountability through the ICC, South Korea impeaching a president, Bangladeshis fighting for freedom, Indonesia solidifying its democracy, Thailand returning to a democratic system and Japan serving as a democratic example — the regime in Phnom Penh has embarked on a path of self-interest that risks regional stability.

This is what makes Manet’s appearance in Tokyo so significant. It presents an opportunity not to shoulder-pat a young and ostensibly amenable new leader, but a platform to confront and dissect the behavior of his regime. Rather than indulging Manet’s worldview, attendees should push Cambodia to open up, reject Chinese-style authoritarianism and adhere to its constitution and international law, as guaranteed by the Paris Peace Accords. This includes embracing multi-party democracy and allowing civil society and opposition to thrive.

Hun Manet has options. He doesn’t need to follow the lead of his father, or the call of the Chinese Communist Party. With guidance, he could strike a different path and become a transformative figure, leading Cambodia from its current abyss toward a genuinely prosperous future. To achieve this, however, he will need encouragement to pursue difficult reforms.

A crucial starting point would be region-led action to dismantle Cambodia's cybercrime industry, the crown jewel of its rotten system, which preys on victims across the Asia-Pacific. A diversification of economic and security arrangements would also help pull Phnom Penh away from its dependency on China, and help ensure that human rights and the interests of Cambodians are prioritized after decades of neglect. This would be a victory for the entire region — and, ultimately, restore the belief that Cambodia can, again, become an open and democratic country.

Mu Sochua, a former Cambodian politician and Nobel Peace Prize nominee, is president of the Khmer Movement for Democracy.