Korea's next chapter

Eugene Lee

Surprisingly, the day the Constitutional Court ruled on former President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment felt like any other — except for one event that stayed with me all week: the unveiling of a commemorative stone honoring independence fighters from the Korean community in Central Asia, held in Ansan, Gyeonggi Province. Remarkably, the two events unfolded together, almost to the minute. As I listened to speeches from guests at the unveiling, I occasionally peeked at my phone, tracking the judge’s words on the impeachment ruling. Just as the cover was pulled off the monument, the judge pronounced, “Discharged.”

Coincidence or not, I’ve felt ever since that we’ve entered a new chapter in Korean history. The struggle for a truly independent South Korea is far from over — and it’s happening against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world. Watching U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive posturing toward Canada and Greenland, I found myself wondering: Would Korea show the same resolve as Ukraine if things were to turn sour? We can amuse ourselves contemplating that scenario later.

Over the past week, my focus has been on getting a better grasp on Trump’s thinking — and that of his key policy advisers — on Korea. We already know Korea is on the U.S. tariff “hit list” of more than 50 countries and knowing what comes next is paramount. In my research, I stumbled upon some references in the infamous Signal transcripts — a group chat of high-ranking U.S. officials that a magazine editor was mistakenly added to. Those references led me to "Mandate for Leadership," a series of books from The Heritage Foundation — an American conservative think tank that has been the mastermind behind many U.S. policies in recent years.

These policy suggestions from conservative think tanks are reshaping how Washington views its relationship with Seoul. As the U.S. shifts its focus toward the growing challenge posed by China, its long-standing alliance with Korea is changing. The U.S. is no longer just asking Korea to be a partner — it expects it to take on much more responsibility. What does this shift mean for both countries?

The U.S. military presence in Korea no longer fully protects it from threats — especially from North Korea. American leaders want South Korea to take greater control of its military operations, increase its defense spending and prepare to handle threats without relying on U.S. troops. This change isn’t just about North Korea. As tensions rise around Taiwan, and China becomes more assertive in the region, the U.S. wants to be able to shift its attention and resources quickly. This means South Korea must be ready to take the lead on regional security — even when the U.S. is focused elsewhere.

As some see it, this approach echoes a 19th-century idea known as "spheres of influence," where major powers carved out areas of control to protect their interests. In today’s version, Korea is being asked to take charge of its own neighborhood — not as a satellite, but as a strong and reliable ally that can help secure the region and prevent rivals from gaining ground.

The U.S. isn’t just asking Korea to build up its military. It’s also encouraging closer cooperation in areas like nuclear defense planning, missile defense and advanced technology. For example, South Korea is becoming a key player in producing semiconductors and other high-tech components that are essential for modern military and economic strength. The U.S. wants to strengthen these ties and create more reliable supply chains that don’t depend on China.

There’s another layer too: the idea of “radial influence,” a term used by Vice President J.D. Vance to describe how a central power extends its influence outward to trusted allies. The U.S. sees Korea not just as a distant partner, but as a vital link in a network of influence that can help shape a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region. Joint meetings, defense agreements and technology partnerships are all part of this deeper cooperation. These efforts are meant to make both countries stronger and more prepared for future challenges — but they also require trust, strong communication and steady leadership from both sides.

Beyond military and economic issues, surprisingly, even if the U.S. is leaning towards authoritarianism, it also expects Korea to take on a bigger role in promoting democratic values in the region. This would include speaking up for human rights, standing up to authoritarian powers like China and supporting a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific. Washington wants Korea to see itself not just as a country focused on the Korean Peninsula, but as a regional leader with global responsibilities — supporting international efforts, working with allies like Japan and Australia and possibly even playing a role in helping defend Taiwan if tensions with China worsen. At least, that’s what I was able to read between the lines.

Obviously, these changes won’t come easily. I would argue that more independence would allow Korea to become a “normal” state — one that can shape its own foreign policy. The only concern is taking on too much responsibility too quickly.

Then, there is a wild card in all of this also — Trump himself and his future leadership. While the Trump administration has pushed for allies to do more and pay more, it has also raised doubts about America’s long-term commitment. After what we’ve seen with NATO, we simply cannot fully count on Washington’s support. And of course, we will have to deal with outside pressures — China’s economic influence looms large, and North Korea remains unpredictable. All of this means our alliance needs a qualitative upgrade. To counter future tariffs, building a regional economic arrangement would also be a smart move. Most importantly, looking further into the future, I believe conditions for South Korea to begin rapprochement with the North are improving rapidly.

The stakes are getting higher, but so are the potential benefits. While our chance to rebuild our historic alliance with the U.S. reflects today’s challenges, it is also an opportunity to pave the way for a better tomorrow.

Eugene Lee (mreulee@gmail.com) is a lecturing professor at the Graduate School of Governance at Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul. Specializing in international relations and governance, his research and teaching focus on national and regional security, international development, government policies and Northeast and Central Asia.