New realpolitik and Korea

 

Less than two months into Trump’s presidency, sweeping policy changes are reshaping the United States. From the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants to reduced funding for educational institutions, I feel the impact of these changes in my workplace, neighborhood and streets. But the most profound transformation is unfolding on the global stage, as the traditional world order fractures under the weight of Trump’s "America First" doctrine. Longstanding U.S. allies, including the European Union, are grappling with this stark new reality, and Korea will likely face similar challenges.

I watched in shock last week’s confrontation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, in which the two leaders shouted at each other, and Vice President JD Vance scolded Zelenskyy for being disrespectful and ungrateful to the U.S. It was a spectacle: a raw and boorish reality TV show in which world leaders starred. The weaker leader, however, was badly bullied in front of a global audience. It was a stark contrast to just two years ago when Zelenskyy was hailed as a heroic defender of democracy, receiving a standing ovation in the U.S. Congress. How quickly allegiances shift.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine reflects his broader foreign policy. Sidestepping diplomatic norms, he unilaterally tried to strike a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war — without involving Ukraine. Now, he demands that Zelenskyy, who has no leverage left, agree to provide the U.S. with a share of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Gone are the security assurances outlined in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for protection from global powers. The implications are chilling: alliances once considered firm are now conditional and transactional.

What’s unfolding in the world now, led by the United States, is "realpolitik" — an approach that reduces all issues to national self-interest. The U.S. is steadily withdrawing from its commitments to the Atlantic Alliance, deeming them no longer beneficial. Some European leaders now see the United States less as a steadfast partner and more as an unreliable force driven by shifting political whims. In response, they are boosting their own military spending and seeking greater geopolitical independence. The resurgence of right-wing nationalism is palpable, and its ripple effects are being felt across the globe.

We are witnessing the disintegration of a world order built — however imperfectly — on liberal values. Humanitarianism, multilateral diplomacy, the pursuit of social justice, free trade and democratic capitalism are all being undermined. To be clear, these values have never been perfectly upheld by Western powers, nor are they inherently morally superior. But at least they represented an aspirational framework for international cooperation. That framework is now giving way to a brutal doctrine of self-preservation and power politics.

In a previous column, I expressed confidence that the U.S.-Korea alliance would remain strong despite Trump’s unpredictability. Today, I am far less certain. Trump believes Korea is not paying its fair share for the U.S.' military presence on the peninsula and views the nation’s trade surplus with the U.S. as an economic imbalance that must be corrected — likely through aggressive tariffs. This view suggests that tensions in U.S.-Korea relations are set to escalate.

More critically, Korea finds itself in a precarious position as tensions between the United States and China intensify. If these superpowers move from economic rivalry to military confrontation, Seoul will face an unenviable dilemma. Should it double down on its alliance with Washington despite America’s increasing retreat from international commitments? Or should it strengthen ties with Beijing, whose influence in the region continues to expand? The longstanding strategic slogan "economy with China, security with the U.S." may no longer hold. What about the growing alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow? How will it affect Korea-U.S. relations?

I do not claim to be an expert in international relations, nor can I predict how these turbulent times will unfold. But what seems certain is that we are in for a bumpy ride. The fate of nations will increasingly be shaped by shifting power dynamics, with smaller states caught in the crossfire of self-interested superpowers. Korea has already experienced this reality during the Korean War.

The era of liberal globalization is over, and a new age of political and economic realignment is upon us. The global landscape is fracturing, and each nation must now navigate an uncertain world where survival depends on its ability to adapt. The stakes have never been higher.

Min Seong-jae (smin@pace.edu) is a professor of communication and media studies at Pace University in New York. He was a 2023-24 Fulbright U.S. Scholar to Korea.