DMZ flash point

John Merill

North Korea is building up its frontline tactical missile forces against South Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently announced that North Korea has deployed along the DMZ some 250 mobile missile launchers, capable of carrying up to four short-range Hwasong 11 KN-23 ballistic missiles. This is in addition to existing artillery positions aimed at Seoul and other sites along the border.

The solid-fuel missiles, which are theoretically nuclear-capable, will allow Pyongyang to target key areas in South Korea with greater accuracy. If fired as a barrage, they could overwhelm any possible defenses.

The KN-23 missiles, which were first displayed in 2018, are loaded in canisters on transporter erector launchers (TEL) and ready to fire at a moment's notice. They fly in a quasi-ballistic trajectory and their short flight time makes it difficult to intercept with current missile defense technology.

They can deliver chemical, conventional and even nuclear warheads — although deploying nuclear warheads to frontline units would be a logistical nightmare.

If some of the newly deployed missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads, securing them and providing a reliable command and control system will pose a major problem.

The addition of penetration aids or multiple warheads would make the missiles even more troublesome. They are reportedly highly accurate, with an estimated circular error of probability of 35 meters, based on imaging showing the pattern of impact craters from previous tests.

The KN-23 is already being used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. The North Korean missile, although based on Russia's Iskander-M missile, is a more advanced version, able to carry heavier payloads.

Seoul has sought to play down any immediate threat posed by the KN-23 deployment. Although it has a theoretical operational range of 900 km, which would enable it to reach most of South Korea, South Korea's National Intelligence Service estimates that the missile would reach only as far as the central Chungcheong region if launched from frontline positions.

Moreover, it believes that there are not enough missiles for all of the TELs along the DMZ because North Korea continues to deliver KN-23 missiles to Russia in its ongoing war with Ukraine.

In addition, Ukraine claims that the KN-23s launched by Russia have a high failure rate, with half of them having lost their programmed trajectories and exploding in the air.

But the KN-23 is not the only new weapon to be deployed with North Korean frontline units. "Suicide drones" are also likely to be supplied to the troops.

Earlier this month, Kim Jong-un oversaw a demonstration of the new drones destroying targets by crashing into them instead of firing missiles from a standoff position, hence the "suicide drone" label.

The suicide drones might be the first sign of a reciprocal arrangement in which North Korea receives Russian military technology assistance in return for supplying artillery shells and KN-23 missiles to Moscow since the new drones appear to resemble Russian Zala Lancet-3 drones.

North Korea's increased reliance on missiles and drones, which mirrors that of Russia in attacking Ukraine, suggests that Moscow sees no need to provide Pyongyang with modern combat aircraft, which would be a much more expensive alternative.

The KN-23 deployment and the production of new drones signal that North Korea has shifted its focus from developing long-range missiles that could reach the United States to expanding its arsenal of short-range weapons that would be used against South Korea.

The recent developments follow the collapse last year of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, which was a historic attempt to reduce tensions between the two Koreas by limiting military activity along the DMZ. At the time of the accord's demise, North Korea warned that it would "deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware" in the border region.

Pyongyang further escalated tensions when Kim Jung-un declared earlier this year that South Korea was Pyongyang's No. 1 enemy, abandoning its five-decade policy of pursuing peaceful unification. He warned that his military could react with preemptive nuclear strikes against South Korea if he believed his leadership was under threat.

It is noteworthy that the ceremony to mark the transfer of the KN-23 tactical missile launchers to frontline units also provided a clue to North Korea's future leadership succession plans. Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jung, who attended the event, showed truly remarkable deference to Kim's daughter, according to the NIS.

This reinforced previous speculation that his daughter, now in her early teens, might be being groomed as Kim's intended successor since she has attended many military-related events. No woman has ever run the country before. But if Kim Jong-un decides to make her his successor, the groundwork is already being laid by her frequent appearances as a reminder of the "Paektu bloodline."

John Merrill (jmerrill05@gmail.com) is a visiting scholar at the Institute of Korean Studies at George Washington University.