Behind closed doors: Decoding Jake Sullivan's high-stakes China visit

Lee Seong-hyon

Jake Sullivan's visit to China from Aug. 27 to 29 involved extensive discussions with high-ranking Chinese officials, including Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, and Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. The visit was part of the Biden administration’s broader effort to manage U.S.-China relations responsibly and prevent competition from escalating into conflict. It followed a series of secret meetings Sullivan held with Chinese officials over the past 15 months, which laid the groundwork for this high-profile engagement. Notably, Sullivan’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping marked the first such visit by a U.S. national security adviser to China in eight years, underscoring its diplomatic significance.

The timing of the visit was particularly intriguing, as it occurred shortly after the United States imposed sanctions on nearly 39 Chinese firms that it alleged supported Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. Despite these tensions, Xi granted Sullivan an audience, indicating China’s interest in maintaining open communication channels.

During the visit, Sullivan emphasized the importance of responsible management of U.S.-China relations, echoing Biden’s commitment to managing this consequential relationship. He reiterated that the U.S. does not seek a new Cold War, does not aim to change China’s system and does not support Taiwan's independence. These assurances are significant in the current climate of tension, reflecting the Biden administration’s strategy of balancing competition with cooperation.

Xi, for his part, emphasized China’s commitment to maintaining stable U.S.-China relations. He expressed a desire for the U.S. to view China’s growth positively and collaborate with China to find a suitable path for the two major nations to coexist. This rhetoric underscores the complex strategic considerations as both nations navigate a highly competitive relationship.

One of the most notable aspects of Sullivan’s itinerary was his rare meeting with Gen. Zhang Youxia, who ranks just below Xi in the military hierarchy. This encounter, the first of its kind for a U.S. national security adviser since 2016, suggests a concerted effort to address heightened military tensions, particularly in the South China Sea. During this meeting, Sullivan stressed the importance of regular military-to-military communications to prevent competition from veering into conflict or confrontation.

The official readouts of these meetings, particularly from the Chinese side, offer a fascinating glimpse into the diplomatic dance between the two nations. China’s statements were notably longer and more detailed, providing a full reiteration of their desired principles for the bilateral relationship. Yi urged the U.S. to adopt a “correct perception” of China and to end its suppression of China in the economic, trade and technological fields.

Interestingly, photos from the meeting show Sullivan maintaining a poker face while Xi smiles — a visual contrast that has not gone unnoticed by observers. This careful management of optics suggests an awareness on the U.S. side of the potential domestic political implications of appearing too conciliatory toward China.

As the dust settles on this high-stakes diplomatic endeavor, questions remain about its long-term impact. With less than six months left in Biden’s term, both sides appear to be positioning themselves for what comes next. For Washington, the priority seems to be maintaining stability and preventing any major disruptions during the election season. For Beijing, the calculus is more complex, balancing the need for economic stability with its long-term strategic ambitions.

Sullivan’s visit also set the stage for a potential future meeting between Biden and Xi. Both leaders have agreed to hold a phone conversation in the coming weeks, with the possibility of an in-person meeting later this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. This ongoing dialogue is crucial for managing the complex U.S.-China relationship, especially as both countries face significant domestic and international challenges.

In the end, Sullivan’s visit to China offers a masterclass in the art of modern diplomacy. It demonstrates how nations can engage in substantive dialogue even amidst significant tensions and how carefully choreographed meetings can send powerful signals to domestic and international audiences alike.

Meanwhile, for South Korea, it is noteworthy that the Korean Peninsula was mentioned in Sullivan’s press conference but omitted from the official White House readouts of the event. This discrepancy raises questions about whether the North Korean nuclear issue has been deprioritized on Washington’s diplomatic agenda, a development that warrants close attention.

Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D., is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations and an associate at the Harvard University Asia Center. (seonghyon_lee@fas.harvard.edu)