The future is now: Why Korea needs population science in foreign policy toolbox

The international landscape is in constant flux, demanding sophisticated tools to navigate its complexities. While unforeseen events like economic downturns, wars and pandemics can erupt suddenly, established trends like climate change and population shifts offer a clearer window into the future. Climate change is already at the center of the global agenda, with established frameworks like the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, along with institutional mechanisms like the Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Green Climate Fund, in place to address it. However, the international response to demographic change lags behind. Here in Korea, we face a unique demographic challenge — the world's lowest birthrate and a shrinking population.

Chung Keeyong

Beyond running shoes and EVs: How corporations leverage population science

Major corporations, both domestic and foreign, are using population trends to predict future markets. Recognizing the growing middle class and rising disposable income in the developing world, Nike is expanding strategically beyond running shoes. They are investing in fitness apparel, wearable tech and digital fitness platforms to cater to the burgeoning wellness movement in these regions. Disney sees the aging population ("silver tsunami") and creates experiences for multi-generational families, ensuring relevance across age groups. Hyundai Motor and Kia target countries with healthy population outlooks and market potential. They aim to produce locally affordable, fuel-efficient and increasingly electric vehicles to cater to this growing segment. Samsung and LG analyze trends to understand tech-savvy younger generations in emerging markets, tailoring their offerings to resonate with them. By analyzing population trends, these companies predict market evolution. This proactive approach, rooted in population science, provides valuable insights that can inform Korea's foreign policy.

Population science: A strategic lens for foreign policy

Imagine a chessboard where each piece represents a nation's power. Population science allows us to analyze the demographics behind each piece, providing some insights into a country's long-term potential. A nation with a rapidly aging population might struggle to maintain military strength due to a shrinking pool of recruits. Conversely, a country with a large and growing youth could be a future economic powerhouse. By understanding these demographic trends, Korea can tailor its foreign policy for a more strategic advantage.

The Indo-Pacific: A microcosm of global trends

The Indo-Pacific region presents a complex demographic picture. China and India, the world's most populous nations, reside alongside Korea, with its birthrate plummeting to record lows. Japan takes the crown for the oldest population, with over a third of its citizens exceeding 65 years old. By 2030, projections indicate Korea will have the highest ratio of elderly to young people among developed countries. China's decades-long one-child policy has undeniably contributed to its aging population as well.

Standing in stark contrast are youthful nations like India and Indonesia. They're experiencing a population boom among young people, resulting in a rapidly growing and skilled workforce. This demographic disparity necessitates a nuanced foreign policy informed by population data specific to each nation.

This reality aligns perfectly with the goals outlined in Korea's comprehensive Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in December 2022. The strategy emphasizes a "Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific" built on a foundation of rules and cooperation. To achieve these goals, a clear understanding of the region's specific demographics is essential.

Synergy is key: Bridging foreign policy and population planning

The recent establishment of the Diplomatic Strategy and Information Headquarters within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, alongside the planned Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning, mark positive steps towards a more data-driven foreign policy. However, for maximum impact, these entities must work in close collaboration. By fostering synergy between these ministries, population science can become a powerful tool for navigating the complexities of the international landscape.

Anticipating geopolitical risks

By collaborating with population experts, the foreign ministry can leverage demographic analysis to predict how population decline in other nations might affect regional stability and social unrest. This foresight allows for proactive diplomatic strategies to address potential flashpoints.

For example, rapid population decline combined with aging populations could lead to competition for resources like water and arable land and exacerbate existing tensions. By analyzing demographic trends in neighboring countries, Korea can anticipate these challenges and develop proactive strategies to foster cooperation and resource sharing.

Identifying strategic partners

Similarly, population data, when combined with foreign policy expertise, can guide the identification of future partners and markets. This collaboration can lead to beneficial trade agreements, smart immigration policies and enhanced cooperation with nations experiencing strong demographic growth.

For instance, to address its aging population, Korea can establish international partnerships focused on developing elder care and child care solutions. This collaborative approach allows for tailored diplomatic and economic approaches based on the specific demographic realities of each nation.

Optimizing resource allocation

Understanding future population trends also allows the government to better allocate resources domestically. The population ministry can provide critical data to the foreign ministry, enabling informed decisions regarding foreign aid and collaborative programs.

A case in point is Finland's strategy of importing pupils from countries with sustainable birthrates. This approach keeps their school system functioning while educating a skilled workforce from a young age.

Assuming global leadership

Population decline is a global challenge. By sharing its expertise and experience, Korea can work towards a more sustainable future for all by leading in population science. This leadership can solidify Korea's position as a key player in addressing global demographic challenges.

One way Korea can establish itself as a leader is by spearheading international research initiatives on population trends and their societal impact. This will not only contribute valuable data and solutions but also foster international collaboration on tackling this global issue.

The future is now, and the time to act is upon us. By embracing population science and fostering collaboration, Korea can craft a foreign policy that isn't merely reactive, but one that is more prescient and adaptable. This proactive approach, armed with the knowledge of future trends, will ensure Korea's strategies remain future-proof and help propel the nation towards a leading role on the world stage. Let's leverage this advantage to build a stronger, more prosperous Korea for generations to come.

Chung Keeyong is the special representative for Indo-Pacific at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.