Decision to abandon hope

 

Former President Park Geun-hye attended a flamboyant military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing in 2015, standing on the reviewing stand at Tiananmen Square alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

She was the lone leader of the U.S. allies to attend the event, which was shunned by many Western leaders who were concerned about China’s growing influence regarding territorial disputes.

At the time, her drastic decision was mainly based on the belief that her attendance may lead to China playing a more constructive role in the denuclearizing of North Korea.

However, eight years later, looking back on the South’s past efforts toward China — regardless of the political orientation of its government — Pyongyang has been never prepared to give up its nuclear ambitions, raising important questions like, is it even a realistic goal?

Last week, the Chinese president was in the headlines once again after he met with South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, during which, Xi expressed support for inter-Korean reconciliation and pledged continued efforts for peace on the Korean Peninsula after Han asked China to play a constructive role.

Despite the Chinese leader’s tentative commitment to help address North Korea’s nuclear issue, few buy into the idea that China, the North’s lone economic pipeline and diplomatic protector, will step up efforts to exert its influence on the Kim Jong-un regime to give up its nuclear weapons.

Any potential intervention would depend on how the hegemonic rivalry between the United States and China develops.

Many diplomatic observers believe that China sees North Korea as an asset, not a liability, amid the intensifying Sino-U.S. competition unlike their estrangement ― from 2012 to 2017 ― during which China gave the nod for the international community to impose sanctions on the North due to its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile-related programs.

In that respect, without drastic rapprochement between the U.S. and China, there is little chance that Beijing will do something to resolve North Korea’s nuclear matter.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration already does not seem to expect great things from China in terms of North Korea’s nuclear matter.

Earlier this week, National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong said during a TV interview that it appears unlikely that China will be able to bring North Korea into denuclearization talks because it has never responded to denuclearization talks since Kim Jong-un took the helm in 2011.

With no signs of reconciliation between Washington and Beijing, South Korea is at this point required to manage its ties with the Chinese government well to move closer to the long-term goal of denuclearizing North Korea.

Currently, China is suffering from domestic issues, which prevents it from waging a full-blown war with South Korea despite Seoul’s diplomatic stance leaning toward the U.S. over China and the current situation is giving South Korea diplomatic leeway.

In addition, Beijing is distancing itself from North Korea and Russia at the same time as relations between the two pariah states are improving.

Under these circumstances, South Korea, now establishing a relationship with China from the former Moon Jae-in administration’s low-key diplomacy, is advised in order to specify its mid- and long-term policies toward China.

The writer is the politics desk editor.