Korea-US alliance at 70: whither to go?

By Ahn Ho-young

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the ceasefire of the Korean War as well as the Mutual Defense Treaty between South Korea and the United States. Ten years ago, I used to be the Korean ambassador to the U.S., and worked with U.S. colleagues to organize the 60th anniversary of the ceasefire and the alliance.

On the morning of July 27, 2013, thousands of people gathered at the Mall near the Korean War Veterans Memorial. The ceremony lasted for more than two hours, culminating with the speech of then-President Barack Obama. In the speech, he called the Korean War the Forgotten Victory.

That new definition of the Korean War impressed me deeply and made me think. I knew for a fact that the Korean War had long been known in the U.S. as the Forgotten War. What does it mean that the President of the U.S. now calls it the Forgotten Victory? I thought that his intention was to applaud the developments that Korea had achieved as a nation over the intervening 60 years and the role that the Korea-U.S. alliance had played along the way. During the following more than four years when I worked in Washington as an ambassador, I shared the new definition and my interpretation of it with U.S. citizens.

Ten years passed since then. I think it has been a tumultuous and momentous 10 years in every sense. The year 2013 had not yet seen the Russian invasion of Crimea. Russia was attending the G7 summit as the eighth participant. Russia was engaged in various dialogues and cooperation with NATO. People still basked in the belief that the rules-based international order attracted former communist countries and offered the basis for globalization and the continued economic benefits, which accrue from it. After 10 years, the tenet of liberal democracy, underlying the rules-based international order, is being challenged in various corners of the world.

Even more alarming is what we observe in the U.S. and other countries where the values and institutions of liberal democracy were born and nurtured. We observe mounting challenges to democracy with the wide spread of social and racial bigotries and right-wing nationalism.

These geopolitical and political changes are taking place concurrently with dazzling developments in science and technology. Most remarkable for me are the developments being made in AI, machine learning and quantum computing. AI and machine learning are generative by nature, distinguished from any preceding breakthroughs in science and technology. When they are combined with developments in quantum computing, it can open vast areas of positive applications. At the same time, there are deeply worrying scenarios about the horrible danger humanity will face when the same breakthroughs are abused.

What do these changes over the past 10 years imply for the Korea―U.S. alliance? I have always thought that the strength of the alliance lies in its capacity to adapt itself to the changes in the environment.

As for the geopolitical challenges, Korea has already declared where it stands by announcing its participation in the U.S.' Indo-Pacific Strategy at the end of last year. Korea will work with the U.S. and other like-minded countries to defend and maintain the rules-based international order and its underlying values.

With respect to the dazzling developments in science and technology, I think it is in that area that the alliance must be meaningfully realized. It is because science and technology hold the key to tackling not only the economic and political difficulties we face in both of our countries, but also even for dealing with geopolitical challenges.

In fact, there are ample reasons to believe that both of our countries have a lot to gain from further strengthening cooperation in science and technology. For one, we share common values. For another, the U.S. excels by far in making truly meaningful breakthroughs in science and technology, while Korean industries have mastery over the application of those breakthroughs on the factory floor, something called process knowledge. That's one more reason why Presidents Yoon Suk Yeol and Joe Biden should focus intensely on science and technology when they meet later this month.

Along with these issues calling for the adaptation of the alliance, the alliance is now faced with two clear and urgent challenges. One of them is the unbridled development of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons by North Korea and its repeated threat to use them preemptively against South Korea. There are increasing signs that the North's behavior is undermining South Korean citizens' confidence in the extended deterrence of the U.S.

Another challenge for the alliance is the modality through which the U.S. intends to implement U.S. laws legislated for reshoring critical industries back to the U.S. and foreclosing technological and industrial abuses by certain countries. Some of the modalities are undermining the critical interests of major industries in Korea and other allies of the U.S. I am confident that Presidents Yoon and Biden will address these two urgent challenges sufficiently as well when they meet in Washington.

Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is chair professor of North Korean studies, Kyungnam University. He also served as Korean ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.