Was COP 26 medicine for climate fever?

By Bhaskar Anand

Climate fever, also known as global warming, refers to a steady increase in the earth's surface temperature since the pre-industrial period. Until 1880, the rate of temperature upswing was 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade. However, after the 1880s, the temperature rose 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade. Furthermore, a cumulative rise of 1.19 degrees Celsius was detected in 2020 over the pre-industrial period. Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005; and five of them occurred since the Paris Agreement in 2015. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2020 was the second-warmest year in recorded history.

This climate fever is predominantly caused by human activities, notably the burning of fossil fuels. All anthropogenic activities raise the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases). GHGs serve as a heat-trapping medium, absorbing and re-emitting infrared radiation from the sunlight. Carbon dioxide levels have risen dramatically since the 1800s, increasing from 282 parts per million to 419 parts per million by 2021. Carbon dioxide is the most significant contributor to GHGs, accounting for 76 percent of the total, followed by methane (16 percent), nitrous oxide (6 percent), and fluorinated gas (2 percent). Despite the low concentration of fluorinated gases, they are of significant concern due to their 23,000-times stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide. Compared to carbon dioxide, even methane and nitrous oxide both possess 25 and 300 times higher potential for global warming, respectively.

Prolonged and severe heat waves, frequent droughts, unprecedented rainfall and stronger tropical cyclones are catastrophic consequences of climate fever. According to the World Health Organization, climate change is responsible for around 150,000 deaths every year. On the other hand, climate change might cause 250,000 additional deaths per year by 2030 owing to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. According to the World Bank's Groundswell report published in 2021, climate change will also force 216 million people to migrate by 2050.

Despite our suffering, governments have continued to fuel climate fever by subsidizing fossil fuels. As a result, the Conference of Parties (COP) continued to fall short of its goals. The Paris Climate Accords (COP 21), signed in 2015, obfuscated the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by making it quasi-legally obligatory, yet contingent on the non-binding commitments of all participating nations. These non-binding targets are nationally determined contributions or NDCs, aiming to reduce emissions by 2030. Scientists have cautioned that NDCs with any later timelines will result in global warming of 3 degrees Celsius or more, and will be catastrophic.

COP 26, held in Glasgow from Oct. 31 to Nov. 13, had delegations from nearly 200 countries. Surprisingly, the fossil fuel industry had the largest delegation, with 503 people, outnumbering any country. This situation is exactly why "the market" cannot be trusted. When things are in jeopardy, radical transformation is required. Only a few countries have made their commitments legally enforceable. However, most COP commitments will have to be self-policed (and actually, non-binding).

On the other hand, governments seem considerably more interested in gimmicks and passing the buck via blaming one another. Policy makers acknowledge that fossil fuel is the culprit behind global warming and yet simultaneously undermine all efforts by subsidizing fossil fuels. Due to the complexities of the negotiations, it is a well-known fact that COP 26 will not achieve everything that had been hoped for.

Historical precedents suggest that the leaders of ancient societies who failed to address the climate stressors of those eras, ultimately met complete societal collapse, such as the annihilation of the Mayan civilization in the 9th century.

As individuals, we need to enact responsibility, and it is essential for all of us to take part. We need to make lifestyle changes in order to develop market forces that result in a zero-carbon footprint as medicine for our planet's climate fever.

Bhaskar Anand (https://www.bhaskaranandjha.com) is a doctoral student working in the field of air quality and material application at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University.