Why Trump's acquittal could be 2024 launchpad

By Andrew Hammond

The U.S. Senate acquittal on Saturday of Donald Trump, the shortest U.S. impeachment trial ever, raises the odds significantly that he could run again for the presidency in 2024.

Trump is a precedent-shattering politician and will care little for the fact that there has only been one other president in U.S. history elected in non-consecutive terms. That was Grover Cleveland who won in 1884 and 1892.

It was always likely that Trump would be acquitted given that two thirds of senators were required to convict, and Democrats were 10 votes short with the final tally 57-43. Yet, the outcome was a double victory for Trump as a separate censure motion that would have required a straightforward up-or-down (i.e. simple majority) vote, also being considered by centrist Republicans and Democrats that could have potentially barred Trump from holding future office, was not taken up.

While it is by no means certain that Trump is gearing up for another shot at the White House, this possibility grew significantly with Saturday's acquittal from the Senate. Legal barriers from future lawsuits against the president aside, there are no insuperable personal or political obstacles to him running again.

In 2024, Trump will be about the same age as President Joe Biden is now. And, in refusing to concede last November's ballot outcome, the billionaire businessman's 'game plan' for winning power again may well be to try to emulate the 1828 campaign of Andrew Jackson, an insurgent president many have compared him to.

In 1824, Jackson came close to winning the presidency winning the most electoral votes, but not enough for the necessary majority in a field of four candidates ― Jackson, Henry Clay, John Quincy Adams and William Crawford. In what Jackson later termed the “corrupt bargain,” the House of Representatives elected Quincy Adams as president, despite Jackson's electoral college advantage. Jackson went on to win the presidency in 1828 and 1832.

While the circumstances of Trump's loss to Biden are different to those of Jackson in 1824 when he was bested by Quincy Adams, the billionaire businessman has sought to nurture a similar sense of grievance over his defeat. And this despite the overwhelming evidence that points to Biden's clear electoral college win.

Despite the many disgraces of Trump's presidency, he would potentially be a formidable contender in 2024 for the Republican nomination. While he lost in November, he performed above the expectations set by prior polls which had pointed to a potential landslide win for Biden. The appeal of 'Trumpism' in the United States remains strong with key groups as was evidenced by his larger vote total in 2020 than 2016.

The other reason why Trump could do well is the advantage he would have over other rivals also seeking the Republican nomination. History indicates there are patterns to previous races that point to potential success for the former president.

The past few decades of U.S. political history suggest the victor in nomination contests for both major parties frequently leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first presidential nomination ballot in Iowa, and/or also raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months prior to election year. On both these counts, Trump could potentially be very strong.

From 1980 to 2020, the eventual nominee in around half the Democrat and Republican nomination races contested (that is, in which there was more than one candidate), was the early frontrunner by both of these measures. Moreover, in at least four partial exceptions to this pattern, the eventual presidential nominee led the rest of the field on one of the two measures, including Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.

Yet, even if Trump were to win the Republican nomination for a third time, it would not be certain he would win back the presidency. Much would then depend upon the success of Biden's forthcoming presidency, and whether he stands for re-election.

Another key factor that will influence Republican prospects of winning back the White House will ultimately be whether, and how quickly, the party can unite around its eventual nominee given the forthcoming debate between moderate/centrist Republicans, and pro-Trump insurgents over future direction. While the circumstances of 2024 will be different from 2020, a rancorous, divisive Republican nomination contest may only benefit Biden (or the eventual Democratic presidential nominee) in four years.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.