'Uncivil war' Biden's 1st 100 day focus

By Andrew Hammond

President Joe Biden has hit the ground running in his first few days in office, signing an array of executive orders. Yet, in a sea of foreign and other domestic challenges, his biggest priority is bringing political conciliation to a country that is the most divided in living memory.

This renewal project, to tackle what Biden called on Saturday the nation's “un-civil war,” is a multi-year task. Yet, his success in the first few weeks will go a long way to determine the fate of his overall presidency in the context of the trauma that the pandemic has brought to the nation with over 400,000 coronavirus-related deaths already.

Whether Biden's first 100 days are successful, or not, will depend critically upon the skill with which he now configures and leads his new administration, and projects the moral authority emanating from his victory.

The presidency provides at least two broad powers: that of setting governing themes for his administration, including renewal and unity; and that of creating interactive coalitions among the public and within Congress in support of the administration's legislative program ― regardless of whether his purposes are expansive or limited compared to previous presidencies.

Presidential effectiveness in setting governing themes and building coalitions of support depend upon the political skill of exploiting two sources of power: the popular prestige of the presidential office, and his leadership reputation among members of Congress and senior federal bureaucrats.

Strong and effective presidents exploit each source of power interactively ― as for example Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan did in the 1930s/40s and 1980s respectively. To make the presidency work best for the incumbent and for the country, incumbents have to show rapidly ― and with confidence ― that they know how to do both.

On Jan. 20, Biden's first opportunity as president for giving expression to such engagement and reconciliation was his powerful inauguration speech. After the polarizing electoral circumstances of recent months, this will be quickly followed with further moves to heal the nation's divisions.

For recent rancor not just illustrated, but intensified, schisms across the country, exacerbated by the chaotic transition of recent weeks. While Trump may never run for office again, he leaves a nation more divided than four years ago.

Last November, the maverick campaigner rode an anti-establishment wave for a second time to make the Electoral College contest much closer than many pollsters anticipated. As in 2016, Trump fanned popular anger with the political establishment, especially from discontented working-class voters who are angry on multiple fronts, including with significant increases in income inequality since 1980.

While, before 2016, these inequalities had only limited political consequences, U.S. history shows that income and status differences are potentially significant sources of political change. Groups that have lost income and job security in the course of the last 30 years are mainly unskilled and semi-skilled men in manufacturing industries that previously operated with high levels of unionization under the pressure of international competition.

These cohorts, whose votes are highly sought in elections, were previously ineffectively focused in many national campaigns. Yet Trump has demonstrated they can be mobilized by insurgent politicians operating either within parties or outside them ― as they have been in the past ― for instance in the 1830s by Andrew Jackson (who many have compared to Trump), 1930s by Roosevelt, and 1980s by Reagan.

The polarization of the nation, right now, reinforces the need for Biden to now establish strong governing themes for the next four years which command popular understanding and support whilst affording him latitude for political development and maneuver. Whatever narratives are ultimately articulated, including around 'building back better' post-pandemic, striving for more consensus and for a healing of frayed relations will be the politically prudent course.

To secure success, Biden also needs to 'double-down' on relationships with legislators in a divided Congress, with Democrats retaining the House of Representatives and assuming narrow control of the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris's casting vote. This could be a tough challenge with some Republican senators, in particular, but will be key to delivering central elements of his agenda given the 50-50 split in the chamber.

Despite the deep division across the country, the presidency can still in suitably skilled hands offer the potential for national renewal and unity at troubled times for the U.S. The challenges ahead are huge for Biden who will now be most effective as the nation's head of state if he and congressional colleagues avoid overreach, and work closely to forge a powerful post-pandemic governing agenda that brings the country together, rather than driving it further apart.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.