Hong Kong is not Crimea, thankfully

By Sun Xi

This year's long-lasting and ongoing social turbulence in Hong Kong reminds me of the Crimea crisis in 2014. There are indeed several similarities between the two events.

Firstly, relatively small issues sparked large-scale protests. Hong Kong's increasingly violent protests were triggered in June 2019 by a proposed extradition bill. The 2014 Crimea crisis started in November 2013, when the then Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected a pending EU association agreement and chose closer ties with Russia.

Secondly, big powers are behind both scenes. In Hong Kong's recent unrest, the two defining powers are in fact China and the west, especially the United States. Hong Kong has become a geopolitical pawn of power struggles between these two powers. Similarly, the big bosses behind the 2014 Crimea crisis were actually Russia and the west, including the United States. Ukraine eventually became a victim of cataclysmic geopolitics.

Thirdly, public opinion was against central government. On March 16, 2014, the Crimean status referendum was held and led to the independence of Crimea from Ukraine and the request to join the Russian Federation. The 2019 Hong Kong District Council elections held Nov. 24 was also considered a de facto “referendum” with a landslide victory for the pro-democracy movement, showing deep distrust and dissatisfaction with Beijing.

However, Hong Kong is not Crimea, thankfully.

One key difference between Hong Kong and Crimea is the people's will of independence. There were indeed some banners and posters advocating Hong Kong independence, but the majority of Hongkongers have never been seeking to break away from China. The illusion of independence of Hong Kong is not realistic and quite silly.

Another key difference between Hong Kong and Crimea is that China is not Ukraine. Ukraine could not control its own fate against in the wake of international power struggles and had no capacity to prevent the annexation of Crimea by Russia. In contrast, powerful China is directly struggling with the west and has firm control over Hong Kong.

Tragically, the 2014 Crimea crisis caused many deaths and injuries. Although in recent months, Hong Kong has experienced unprecedented violence and chaos, large-scale casualties will unlikely occur, as both China and the west have no plan to physically intervene in Hong Kong's current turmoil via military action. That is the luck of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was seen as a successful business hub and mature society based on the rule of law, but recently it shocked the whole world by showing how violent and chaotic it could become. Hong Kong should regain its good reputation, but the future stability and prosperity of Hong Kong ultimately lies in its own hands.

The writer (sunshinelkyspp@gmail.com) is a China-born independent commentary writer based in Singapore.