Status quo for Taiwan
By Hu Young-sup
With the presidential election approaching in Taiwan, international attention is drawn to what effects its result will have on the island nation's future. The ongoing turmoil in Hong Kong, triggered by people's protests asking for an autonomous administration, also makes Taiwan's future more uncertain than ever. Taiwan's situation may not be much different from Hong Kong's concerning their relations with China.
Even for foreigners with some interest in Taiwan, it is apparent the biggest issue in the mid-January election is “independence or war.” The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emphasizes the country's sovereignty, while the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) stresses the need to evade potential military conflicts over the Taiwan Strait.
Their political duel will be fought between President Tsai Ing-wen, a DPP candidate now seeking reelection, and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, who represents the KMT. Some others have also enrolled as candidates, but they are of little matter. The KMT seems to think it is a golden opportunity to take back the power it lost four years ago, riding on its victory in last year's local election.
It is remarkable that both the two major parties ostensibly claim to advocate a “status quo” strategy regarding China. Beneath the surface, however, what they mean through the slogan is almost as opposite as their party colors. That is, the DPP tries to itself move as far away from Beijing as possible while the KMT attempts to get closer to it.
Since President Tsai took office in 2016, the Taiwanese government has constantly bickered with China. One of the results of such disputes is Tsia's “New Southbound Policy.” Under the policy, the Taipei government aims to find new markets in Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, instead of the mainland.
A more fundamental problem is Tsai's refusal to agree to Beijing's “One China” principle. China, which regards Taiwan as its core interest just like Hong Kong, Tibet and Uighur, continues to wield international leverage to alienate Taiwan from other countries. That explains why Taiwanese representatives had failed for years to participate in the World Health Organization (WHO), and why the country has lost its diplomatic allies one by one. Seven of Taiwan's former friends severed relations during Tsai's tenure, and only 15 countries remain in Taipei's diplomatic circle.
On the other hand, the opposition KMT calls for maintaining peace by expanding cooperation with China. The KMT warns war may not be unavoidable if Taiwan proclaims independence as DPP seeks. Chinese leaders also show they are willing to attack any time if Taiwan's attempt to seek independence goes beyond their patience.
The Donald Trump administration supports Taiwan through the sale of defensive weapons, but that does not mean the U.S. wants the buildup of tension over the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has also backed up the Trump administration by passing the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act. As of now, the U.S. also seems to think the status quo is the best answer.
The upcoming presidential election will be an occasion on which the Taiwanese people seek the most feasible way to materialize the status quo they want. Some concrete signs will likely take shape in the remaining three months or so, too.
Hu Young-sup is a columnist. Contact him at gracias1234@naver.com.