Putin's mediation

By Mahmood Elahi

By receiving North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok, Russian President Vladimir Putin might have joined South Korean President Moon Jae-in in the mediation to bring about eventual denuclearization of North Korea.

Putin's move to get involved stems mainly from his interest to develop trade and infrastructure with South Korea via the North to diversify Russia's economic relations from its extreme dependence on China. In recent years, Russia has become seriously concerned about China's increasing dominance in its economy.

Heavily dependent on lopsided exports of energy, mining and forest products to China, in exchange for Chinese manufactured goods, Russia now resembles a poor Third World country beside the industrial and financial powerhouse of China.

Despite the growing strategic relations between the two neighbors, Russia's nervousness about a dominant China is evident. Russia is not only dependent on China, it is also extremely vulnerable to any economic slowdown there.

Facing an almost parasitic dependence on China, Putin must have been looking for a new trading partner to diversify trade and investment. As a highly industrial nation, South Korea provides such an alternate source for Russia.

Putin also realizes that the biggest obstacle to any expansion of Russia-South Korea relations remains the nuclear-armed North Korea. As long as North Korea remains a threat to South Korea, Putin's dream of establishing a trading corridor through the North to the South will remain a dream. This is why he might have opened a new pathway to prod Kim to agree to a phased denuclearization and normalization of relations with South Korea.

Seen in this light, Putin's insertion as a mediator adds to Moon's mediation efforts to bring NK leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump together. Russia's interests may be to supplement Moon's own mediation to prod Kim to a phased denuclearization in exchange for incremental lifting of sanctions.

President Moon seems to understand President Putin's own reasons to press Kim to denuclearize. Russia will also be a beneficiary if North Korea abandons its nuclear arsenal, opening up new opportunities for a Russia living under China's shadow.

In a statement, President Moon said he hoped that the Kim-Putin summit would lead to further talks between Trump and Kim. And he invited Putin to visit South Korea.

The dialogue initiated by Moon seems to be moving in the right direction.

Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.