INTERVIEW Pyongyang Declaration: Vietnam feels 'Misery Loves Company'

By Hwang Jae-ho

Vietnam, one of the major countries of ASEAN, is meaningful to Korea in several aspects. In economic terms, it is a significant investment region for Korea, and furthermore, as Moon's regime came up with the 'New Southern Policy', it now is important in diplomatic terms as well.

Close to China, Vietnam also shares the same strategic concerns with Korea as it stays between China and the United States. Vietnam has relations with North and South Korea and is in relatively positive shape with all. In addition, because it has gone through national division as Korea did, Vietnam might have observed the recent inter-Korean summit more than any other country.

The Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam is the diplomacy think tank, where we can find Vietnamese diplomatic policies and overall flows. Here, I interviewed Thanh Hai Tran, an expert on the Korean Peninsula; Deputy Director General, Institute of Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies; Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.

Thanh Hai Tran

Q: There was the inter-Korean summit this week. How do you evaluate this meeting?

A: The Third Inter-Korean Summit is a positive step toward building sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula and strengthening mutual trust between the two Koreas.

Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Moon Jae-in agreed to turn the Korean Peninsula into a “land of peace without nuclear weapons and nuclear threats.” The two countries vowed to “cease all hostile acts against each other.”

On the nuclear issue, Pyongyang pledged to destroy the Tongchang-ri missile engine test site and the Yongbyon nuclear site if the United States takes reciprocal measures. This again confirmed that North Korea continues to apply the “salami slice” strategy and follow the principle of “reciprocity.” The ball is now in Washington's court.

We do not have either a timeline or any detailed guarantees yet. But I think the pledges Kim and Moon made at their third summit could inject fresh momentum into the stalled nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang and lay the groundwork for another meeting that Kim recently proposed to Trump.

Q: How do you anticipate the North Korea nuclear issue and the United State's North Korea regime guarantee?

A: The Singapore summit committed North Korea to giving up its nuclear weapons and the United States to guarantee North Korea's regime survival.

However, this is not the first time both sides have made such a pledge. Washington and Pyongyang made the same commitments in 1994, 2005 and 2007. These commitments, nevertheless, were not realized, largely because of the difficulty in the implementation phase ― what people call “the devil is in the details.” The recent rapprochement between the United States and North Korea is encountering difficulties because North Korea is not willing to disclose its nuclear sites and the United States is pushing hard for denuclearization in the next few years.

The two sides have not yet agreed on the definition of denuclearization and guarantee. This means that there is a high chance the latest commitment will break down as in the past if the two sides fail to resolve their differences any time soon.

Q: One of the most significant features of Southeast Asia is the multilateral organization, ASEAN. Do you think a similar organization is possible in Northeast Asia?

A: ASEAN and its consensus-based mechanism reflect the characteristics of the Southeast Asian region which is comprised of small and medium countries. Unlike Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia is a region with many powers, a U.S.-led “hub-and-spoke” security system and a security order largely based on the balance of power.

The mistrust and strategic competition between the United States and China make it difficult to foresee a possible Northeast Asian version of ASEAN, at least in the near future.

In short, an ASEAN version of Northeast Asia will only be viable if the security issues are resolved in a way that harmonizes the interests of major countries while paying sufficient attention to the interests of smaller countries.

Q: How do you see inter-Korean relations?

A: The recent improvement in inter-Korean relations is a major change and a welcome development on the Korean Peninsula. It helps reduce tensions and paves the way for the parties concerned to work towards a peaceful resolution for the Korean Peninsula.

There remain uncertainties, and the two sides' commitment to improve bilateral relations does not necessarily mean that tensions will not recur. It is important that commitments be institutionalized?through policy and action.

Regional countries including Vietnam would be willing to assist the two Koreas in maintaining peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.

Q: What is the Vietnamese perspective/view of South Korea?

A: In the 1960s, South Korea was one of the world's poorest countries that heavily depended on foreign aid. However, over the past 50 years, South Korea has rapidly upgraded its industrial structure, transforming itself from a poor agricultural nation into a global leader in multiple advanced industries.

Today, South Korea is one of the G20 countries leading the global economy. This development success story has been underpinned by strong leadership and an appropriate economic development strategy.

With complementary economic structures and many similarities in terms of culture and history, Vietnam and South Korea have enjoyed 25 years of diplomatic relations and nine years of strategic partnership.

Although 25 years is not a long time in the history of the two nations, the cooperation between the two countries so far has strongly developed, especially in the economic field.

With a solid strategic partnership founded on trust and mutual respect, the relationship between Vietnam and South Korea will continue to build on past achievements and be further deepened in many areas, including trade, investment, culture, education and people-to-people exchanges.

Q: What are the issues in Korea-Vietnam relations? Do you have any suggestions for improvement?

A: As mentioned above, the relationship between Vietnam and South Korea is generally in good shape. However, there are two issues to which we need to pay attention. One is history and the other is trade relations.

First, the history issue between Vietnam and South Korea. As both countries have experienced war and a colonial past, Vietnamese and Koreans, more than anyone else, understand the sensitive nature of historical issues.

Nobody wants this to become an obstacle to bilateral relations. Sincerity, mutual understanding and a future-oriented approach are the keys to overcoming historical issues.

Second is Vietnam's trade deficit with South Korea. Last year, Vietnam ran a trade deficit of about US$31.8 billion with South Korea, up 53.4 percent from the $US20.8 billion deficit of 2016. A trade deficit is inevitable because South Korea has emerged as the biggest investor in Vietnam over the past four years. However, an over-large trade deficit may have unhealthy implications.

One of the key solutions is to increase exports of Vietnamese products to South Korea. It is suggested that South Korean firms cooperate with the Vietnamese government to promote Vietnam's supporting industries, expand the network of local suppliers and help Vietnamese enterprises join global supply chains of South Korean conglomerates such as Samsung, LG and Hyundai.

Although the countries have signed a bilateral FTA, it is still difficult for Vietnam's export products to get access to the South Korean market due to technical barriers.

Therefore, the South Korean government could consider lowering the technical barriers and help local distributors bring Vietnamese products to South Korean customers.

Through the interview, I could feel Vietnam's, and furthermore ASEAN's hope for North Korean denuclearization and a peace regime. Above all, this is because the Pyongyang Declaration between two Korean leaders was a step forward for peace in Asia. As well as the hope that Vietnam has, I could also see his concern that the way to peace will never be easy; because we all know that Vietnam has striven for independence and peace for decades and centuries.

The ways to unification differ depending on each country's respective historical conditions and domestic or foreign politics. However, Korea and Vietnam share sympathy for each other. Our expectation and wish for peace and prosperity is not just one country's obligation ― it is the obligation of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.

Hwang Jae-ho is director of the Global Security Cooperation Center, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Seoul. Ko Sung-hwah, a researcher at the center, assisted Professor Hwang with the article. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect the view of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam or Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam.