China's 'exclusion anxiety' in North Korea talks

By Lee Seong-hyon

U.S. President Donald Trump famously said that North Korea is China's problem to fix. It reflects the international community's recognition of Beijing's leverage over Pyongyang. However, China has consistently distanced itself from being identified as such, passing the buck to the United States.

The official view from the Chinese foreign ministry Sept. 12, 2016, goes: "Since the North Korean nuclear issue is actually a matter between North Korea and the United States, the U.S. should take responsibility.” Similar statements have been repeatedly made on Sept. 19, 2017, also on Jan. 3 and Jan. 26.

It's like China is making an annual proclamation that it is not responsible for the North Korean nuclear issue, and it doesn't want to be associated with it. However, a sudden and important shift has been made amid the rapid developments on the Korean Peninsula and there is now a view that China is being “sidelined” in this process.

On April 19, the Chinese foreign ministry said, "As a 'party' (dang shi fang) to the Korean Peninsula issue, China is willing to play an active role.” What is noteworthy here is that China, this time, is identifying itself as a party to the problem of the Korean Peninsula. Until recently, China's narrative on the matter was to position itself as a “unique” (dute) country on North Korea's nuclear issue or a nation that plays a “constructive” (jianshexing) role. However, it stopped short of identifying itself a “party.” Thus, this is an important public shift in China exerting its role about North Korea.

Browsing the Chinese foreign ministry's record, one can see that China in the past listed the following countries as “parties” to the North Korean nuclear issue: the U.S., North Korea, and South Korea, without including itself.

China also urged these countries to actively engage in resolving the North Korean issue. “We hope 'the direct parties' involved in the issue of the Korean Peninsula will bravely take the responsibility to fulfill their share of the obligation and play their roles,” the Chinese government said on Aug. 30, 2017, as if it saw itself a third-party referee.

In addition, China has positioned itself as a primary mediator of the North Korean nuclear issue, particularly through its well-recognized role as the host of the six-nation talks, aimed at tackling North Korea's nukes.

In this vein, China has also emphasized that Washington and Pyongyang should accept the China-proposed "freeze-to-freeze" formula as a solution. Clearly, China positioned itself as a mediator, not a party to North Korea's nuclear issue.

However, when it sensed that it was being sidelined in the currently unfolding rapid development on the Korean Peninsula, China suddenly declared itself as a “party” to the Korean Peninsula issue, despite the logical contradiction that China itself should be keenly aware of.

China is not going to tolerate the North Korean nuclear issue being decided without its presence at the table and is not going to stand by idly as the North Korea talks proceed in ways goaded by the U.S. and South Korea, without consulting China.

From a U.S.-China rivalry perspective, Trump's announcement that he would sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un perturbed China's anxiety sufficiently. It would mean that Washington no longer needs Beijing in reaching out to Pyongyang and may even solve the North Korean issue without help from China. It would also mean that China is losing one of its long-time cherished strategic cards in geopolitics surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Chinese scholars say that China will express its discomfort if the U.S. and South Korea “alienate” China and try to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. Perhaps to make this point clear, China sent a military aircraft to intrude into the Air Defense Identification (ADIZ) of South Korea without any prior notice. For four hours, the Chinese military airplane flew along the proximity of the South Korean territory, in a pattern that “enveloped” South Korea. This act of aggression happened just one day after the inter-Korean summit.

China wants Seoul and Washington to respect the Chinese traditional sphere of influence over North Korea and hopes Seoul and Washington will put Beijing more in the loop. When neglected and sulked, Beijing is inclined to demonstrate “who calls the shots” on the North Korean affair (as shown in the abrupt summit between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un), and even “daluan” (disrupt) the ongoing process, to borrow a Chinese interlocutor's expression.

Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.