Taking odds on those summits

By Donald Kirk

Here's a gambling game that Trump/Korea watchers might consider playing. How about odds on Trump meeting Kim Jong-un? That's a serious question considering the White House insists on those familiar initials, CVID, Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization of the North's nuclear program.

How anyone will verify is not clear, but it's a good bet the International Atomic Energy Agency would get into the act. That's what it was doing before North Korea kicked out the IAEA inspectors at the end of 2002 after the breakdown of the 1994 Geneva framework under which the North had shut down its five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon while pursuing a secret program for fabricating highly enriched uranium.

Other bets would be more detailed. The planning for the Moon-Kim meeting has got to be extremely tricky, nothing so tricky as that for Trump and Kim ― that is, if they do meet. (The Americans have yet to hear from the North Koreans about where or when it might work for them ― the White House has only said it will happen “by May” or “in May.”)

Let's say Trump and Kim really do decide to go ahead with a summit despite the seeming rigidity of U.S demands. Ok, then, we might start placing bets on where they'll hold it. We've been hearing such names as Sweden, responsible for U.S. consular affairs in North Korea, notably attempts at seeing jailed U.S. citizens, or Switzerland, where Kim went to school, or the United Nations in New York, where the North Koreans sometimes see Americans for secret talks.

The best bet would probably be inside the Joint Security Area, supposedly “neutral” but divided by a line between North and South, at the truce village of Panmunjom, where President Moon Jae-in is seeing Kim on April 27.

A summit at the JSA, however, would not be without problems. On what side, for instance, would Trump and Kim meet? Kim will be seeing Moon in Peace House on the South's side, the scene of North-South meetings over the years, but would Kim assent to crossing the line again to see Trump?

Or would Trump be willing to see Kim at Panmungak, the North Korean building facing Freedom House over the way inside South Korea?

American and South Korean soldiers, hand-picked members of a joint U.S.-Republic of Korea battalion commanded by an American lieutenant colonel, stand stony-faced just south of the line, never setting foot inside North Korean territory. If Kim wanted to see Trump in Panmungak, would the North Koreans agree on U.S. Secret Service officers accompanying Trump?

Or could Trump and Kim meet inside one of those one-story structures right on the line where the Korean War armistice was signed in July 1953. Imagine the confusion as officials and security types from both sides crowded around those two in a room that's big enough for a couple of dozen people at the most.

For sure, it's safe to assume the Americans in that joint battalion will be out of sight when Kim sees Moon, leaving the South Koreans alone on their side of the line. The American battalion commander, meanwhile, will want to stay way back, probably inside Freedom House, staring unobtrusively from a window.

As for Moon, on the great day of the summit, will he be greeting Kim right on the line before escorting him to Peace House? Will they walk to Peace House, maybe 100-200 meters, or might Kim prefer to cross in one of those Mercedes limos favored by his late father, Kim Jong-il, stopping to shake hands before climbing out at the Peace House steps?

All of which provides for easy bets on what's going to happen, when or where. In fact, the guessing game is a little too vague for my taste. I wouldn't bet on any of the horses in this race. As for what might come out of the summits, Moon and Kim, then Trump and Kim, the guessing game will never end.

The real test will be whether North Korea lives up to any of its promises, ranging from denuclearization to family visits. On the evidence of broken agreements over the years, I wouldn't bet on it. Not a won or a penny.

Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) has been covering the ups and downs of moves toward war and peace on the Korean Peninsula for years.