Kim Jong-un can go back to saber rattling at his own peril

By Mahmood Elahi

After inviting South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump to summits to discuss the denuclearization of his country, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un made a secret trip to Beijing to discuss it with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit was disclosed only after Kim's return to Pyongyang. Why?

The short answer is: Because most dictators are paranoid that they may be toppled while abroad. After Kim's return, North Korea's state newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, was replete with pictures of pomp and splendor. Inside the Great Hall of the People, Xi and Kim stood side by side in their statesmanlike poses. But all this became public after the dictator was back in his capital. It will be interesting to see where Kim agrees to meet President Trump.

For all his threats of nuclear annihilation of America, Kim lives under the shadow of two threats: One is a popular revolt by his restless people and the other is a coup by his disgruntled generals. Kim has been ruling the North Korean people with unspeakable brutality. They have been living from hand to mouth while his cronies enjoy a privileged life. Such a brutal regime must terrorize its own people to survive. But, there is a limit to people's tolerance. North Korean people might have reached the limit.

Most authoritarian regimes in history have fallen due to the dictators' own mistakes. Daniel Treisman, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), has catalogued the most recent ones: Think of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania, calmly ordering a crackdown on a riot that would topple him. Or think of Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, refusing to step aside when mass protests broke out. Kim might join the list if he continues to rule through brute force.

Kim might also be facing pressure from his cronies. His military must be exhausted by non-stop war threats. Despite his bravado, Kim knows that his regime will not survive a surprise pre-emptive nuclear strike by the United States. The United States has the capability to destroy North Korea in a matter of hours.

Sanctions are also biting. North Korea's mentor, China, has also joined the sanctions. China has little interest in seeing North Korea flouting the international community at its doorstep. Any war on the Korean Peninsula would seriously disrupt China's economic interests. China is the biggest trading partner of the United States, South Korea and Japan and it will not tolerate any North Korean adventurism in the Asia-Pacific region.

Kim Jong-un is riding two tigers ― the threat of domestic revolt and crippling international sanctions. He cannot afford to ignore either of them.

President Moon's dialogue from strength provided Kim an opportunity to change his tune from confrontation to cooperation. The flurry of diplomatic activity unleashed by President Moon resulted in setting the stage for the coming Moon-Kim summit and Trump-Kim summit. Moon's “Olympic diplomacy” has opened the possibility for lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. Kim's visit to Beijing is to get China's approval.

However, we have seen this move before. We know how the 2005 six-party talks produced a joint declaration in which North Korea pledged to end its nuclear program, but never complied. On Oct.9, 2006, it tested its first nuclear bomb.

This time, North Korea must not be allowed to get away. Sanctions must remain until the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) certifies that North Korea has dismantled its nuclear arsenal. A subsequent peace treaty signed by South and North Korea will also pave the way for a peaceful unification of two hostile Koreas.

Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.