What's after de-escalation?

By Tong Kim

Although tensions seem to have eased in Korea compared to two weeks ago, Pyongyang has kept up with its usual condemning of the annual U.S.-ROK joint military exercises that will continue until the end of August. Pyongyang continues to demonstrate an advancing missile program, as shown by Kim Jong-un’s Aug. 23 “field guidance” at the Chemical Institute of the Academy of Science, instructing his scientists “to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips.”

On Aug. 14, Kim effectively suspended the spiraling escalation of tensions that put nerves on edge, fearing the worst-case scenario of a catastrophic war. He did it by deciding not to carry out a plan to launch ballistic missiles toward the U.S. territory of Guam. However, this was not a blink on his part, not necessarily taken aback at Donald Trump’s warning that American “fire and fury” was “locked and loaded” at the North.

Kim announced the decision when he visited the Korean People’s Army Strategic Force Command that had completed a plan “for an enveloping fire at Guam,” saying he “would watch a little longer the conduct of the foolish and stupid American bastards, spending a hard time for every minute for their miserable lot.” He also “advised the U.S. to take into full account the gains and losses with a clear head, whether the present situation is more unfavorable for which side.”

Trump tweeted Kim’s move as “a very wise and well-reasoned decision.” On Aug. 22, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noted that North Korea had had made no missile launches or provocative acts since the latest adoption of the U.N. Security Council resolution. He said, “Pyongyang has certainly demonstrated some level of restraint … We hope that this is the beginning of this signal … that they are ready to restrain their level of tensions … that perhaps we are seeing our pathway to sometime in the near future having some dialogue.”

On Aug. 23, Trump said at a rally in Arizona, “Kim Jong-un, I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us … I respect that fact very much … And maybe, probably not, but maybe something positive can come about.” This statement may have some positive impact on the North Koreans. But Trump’s statements are confusing sometimes even to Americans. The North’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) said on Aug. 24 that Trump regularly posts "weird articles of his ego-driven thoughts on his Twitter" and "spouts rubbish to give his assistants a hard time.”

In Seoul, President Moon Je-in started making a difference on the issue of war and peace in Korea. Through his Aug. 15 speech, his first 100 days press conference and his recent meeting with his foreign and unification ministers, Moon has conveyed his strong determination to prevent war in Korea, asserting “only the Republic of Korea can decide on the issue of war, there would be no military strike without Seoul’s consent.”

There is no easy military option. Moon is right in saying that any preventive strike through South Korea or from elsewhere, using U.S. war assets, could cause a North Korean retaliation to the South and it would hurt South Korea most. The U.S. has no fixed final position on how to deal with North Korea.

Recently, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the U.S. commanders from the Pacific Command, the Strategic Command and the Missile Defense Agency were in Seoul and they all renewed the U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea with a full range of capabilities while supporting the diplomatic option that should be given a good try first.

Some former commanders of U.S. forces in Korea expressed views last week that the U.S. could attack the North without the South’s consent, if an attack is launched from outside the South, to protect the United States from an imminent North Korean threat. Talk of this possibility, as well as other tough talk, may have a deterring effect on the North’s aggressive behavior, but such action, if implemented, will risk millions of lives in the South, including American soldiers and civilians.

Washington and Seoul are both pursuing a peaceful resolution of Pyongyang’s nuclear threat through sanctions and pressure, based on a strong alliance. The U.S. does not rule out the military option. Seoul, understandably, wants to rule it out. Peace is contingent on Pyongyang as much as it is on Seoul and Washington. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.