Moon, Trump on N. Korea

By Tong Kim

President Moon’s meeting with President Trump in Washington at the end of this month will determine whether the United States and the Republic of Korea can work together more effectively to deal with North Korean nuclear and missile threats. As reported, their agenda will focus on the alliance, the North Korean issue, and bilateral trade issues.

The two countries share a common interest in a strong alliance and a peaceful resolution of the North Korean threats. The alliance is for deterrence and defense against the North. However, Trump does not feel the trade relationship is fair to the U.S.

It will be easy for both leaders to agree to build a stronger alliance. On trade, there have been suggestions that Moon should offer an economic package of investment and import of more American goods that will create jobs in the U.S., a Trump priority in line with “America First.” The trade issue can and should be manageable, without renegotiating the free trade agreement.

On the North Korean issue, it will be difficult to agree beyond a common approach in principle. On June 15, Moon reaffirmed his pursuit of engagement with the North, “If North Korea suspends additional nuclear or missile provocations, we will engage them without conditions.” Trump and his advisors have also expressed their preference of a negotiated settlement, although they are not ready for talks now.

Reportedly, THAAD is not included in the topics for summit discussion. But, the unpredictable, impulsive Trump might bring it up to press Moon for rapid completion of operational readiness of a THAAD battery by positioning four remaining launchers at its base in Seongju.

THAAD is a complicated issue beyond a military rationale. It is a political issue fraught with domestic politics and a geopolitical controversy. The THAAD system already deployed to Korea is likely to stay after going through the domestic legal procedures of an environment survey and a parliamentary review.

Trump is unlikely to ask Moon to pay for the THAAD. Nor is it likely that the delay with THAAD or the perception of Moon’s reluctance to cooperate on THAAD would lead to the weakening of the alliance or the withdrawal of American troops from Korea.

North Korea is urged to make the right strategic choice: to suspend its path toward a functional nuclear/ICBM capability and freeze its programs at the current level, sufficient for its defense. Pyongyang knows the United States does not prefer a military solution.

Although the U.S. does not seem to have a plan to wage a preventive strike at the present time, it may be forced to take that option at some point, if the North keeps ratcheting up its threats. Defense Secretary Mattis told Congress on June 12 that a war with the North “would be a war like nothing we have seen since 1953, and the U.S. would have to deal with it with whatever force is necessary.” This is if diplomacy fails to make a difference.

On June 13, North Korea released Otto Warmbier, an American student, who was sentenced to serve 15 years of hard labor in prison. It was shocking to learn that the detainee was in a coma when he was released. We don’t know how long he was in a coma during the 17 months of his detention in the North. If Warmbier had been released in good health, it could have bodewell for diplomacy.

During the transition period for the Trump administration, there was an aborted effort by a former Republican Congressman, who tried to visit Pyongyang to obtain the detainee’s release. He organized an unofficial delegation of individuals well known to the North, including an advisor to President-elect Trump for a visit to Pyongyang. The group hoped the release could contribute to a beginning of a new relationship between Washington and Pyongyang. At the end, the North did not invite the group, against recommendations from their own missions in New York and Beijing.

Kim Jong-un has stabilized his regime against external pressure and sanctions. The food situation has improved, private markets work, more buildings go up, and the economy grows, albeit minimal. There are no open civil disturbances. Now he needs an international assurance of respect for his dynasty. This can only be achieved by diplomacy, not by nuclear weapons. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.