Pyongyang's best option

By Tong Kim

In a video message to the opening of the Jeju Conference for Peace and Prosperity on June 1, President Moon Jae-in outlined his plan to lay a foundation for peace on the Korean peninsula during his term in office. He made it clear that his administration would “play a leading role for the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue through dialogue, instead of relying on the roles of other countries.”

“In cooperation with the relevant countries including the United States and China,” he said, “we will lead efforts to pressure and persuade North Korea to come to the table of dialogue and resolve the issues of North Korea’s nuclear program, inter-Korean relations, as well as U.S.-DPRK relations, all at the same time.”

However, Pyongyang’s continuous test firing of ballistic missiles including three that the North has launched since Moon’s inauguration less than a month ago make it practically impossible for the new progressive president of the South to ignore the security threat from the North. Moon is equally firm to say to the North, “If North Korea recklessly provokes us, we will immediately retaliate against it strongly with the defense capabilities of our forces and the U.S.-ROK alliance.”

The Trump administration, like the Seoul government, prefers a peaceful resolution of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs that threaten the South, and the entire region of Northeast Asia as well as the United States. Neither Trump nor Moon is seeking regime change or collapse in Pyongyang.

As the North advances closer to its capability of striking the United States with a nuclear tipped missile, Washington has no other option but increasing more sanction pressure and consider military action. Just last week, the U.S. successfully tested its interception of a mock ICBM oncoming from the Pacific towards California. The ground based missile interceptors are not perfect yet. It is like a star wars concept of “hitting a bullet with a bullet.”

The recent deployment of three aircraft carrier battle groups off the Korean peninsula, or strategic flights of B1-B bombers across the peninsula below the DMZ, or increasing pressure from the international community, or more tightening bilateral U.S. sanctions did not slow down the pace of Pyongyang’s missile launches. Neither Chinese pressure nor talk of a preemptive strike by the U.S. changed North Korean behavior.

On the other hand, we note that Pyongyang has not conducted a sixth nuclear test, despite the reports that said the North was ready for it for some months now. There is no reliable information for the delay other than speculation: they may have no more need for tests due to a new advanced technology, they may have shifted resources to missile tests, or they may have been influenced by Chinese pressure to cut off its lifeline in the event of another nuclear test. Trump says China is working hard.

The North already has enough missiles capable of striking all parts of the South and Japan. Experts estimate that Pyongyang will develop its ICBM technology within a few years to be able to strike the continental United States. The North Koreans claim that they have already succeeded in developing a miniaturized, lightweight nuclear warhead to place atop a ballistic missile. After their latest missile test on May 28, they even claimed the accuracy of their Scud missile is in the latitude of 7 meters from the center of the target.

The U.S. can and will defend itself and its allies with the full spectrum of its war assets. However, if diplomacy fails, and if Pyongyang keeps becoming more dangerous and threatening to the security of the United States, there is no guarantee of excluding the possibility of war.

Secretary of defense James Mattis said on CBS May 28, a conflict with North Korea "would probably be the worst kind of fighting in most people’s life time” and “the bottom line is it would be a catastrophic war if this turns into combat, if we’re not able to resolve this situation through diplomatic means.”

All parties concerned, including South Korea, the U.S., and China seek a peaceful resolution of the North Korean issue. It is high time for Pyongyang to decide what their best option is: they can announce a unilateral suspension of their nuclear and missile tests to create an atmosphere for the South and others to take steps to engage them. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.