New hope begins tomorrow

By Tong Kim

Tomorrow on May 9, the Republic of Korea elects a new president. Looking at the polls and the dynamics of a five-way race, the front-runner Moon Jae-in appears to have clinched the presidency, unless an incredible miracle takes place.

Even if some other candidate is elected, South Korea will restore its legitimate right and opportunity to end the dangerous course of military conflict and to open a new path to peace, stability, and prosperity on the peninsula.

Most voters want security and prosperity. They support the alliance with the United States for the shared interest of deterrence against North Korea. They all oppose North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. They all want a peaceful resolution of these complex issues.

For the first 100 days of the Trump administration, South Korea without a president has been largely left out or neglected from U.S. deliberations of the North Korean issue. Their views were taken for granted by Washington, while working more closely with Beijing and Tokyo, and even with some controversial leaders of Southeast Asian countries.

There has been news of some kind almost every day about tensions with regard to North Korea. Trump’s loose cannons fire salvos of conflicting statements, sending mixed signals from military action to conditional talks. His intentional unpredictability risks dangerous miscalculation by adversaries.

One day, Trump says, “We could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea”, the next day he says Kim Jong-un is a “smart cookie” and he would be “honored to meet with him under the right circumstances.” Then on another day, he threatens, “I will act, if I have to act.” He seems to be saying he will act to carry out a military strike on the North.

Recently Trump also said South Korean should pay $1 billion for the cost of a THAAD battery system, as it will defend the South. The questions of the system’s effectiveness and its impact on South Korea’s economic and strategic interest have not been resolved.

The South Korean people were led to believe that the THAAD system was being deployed to protect the U.S. forces in Korea and the cost of the system would be paid by the U.S., while South Korea will provide the land and pay the cost of base preparations. The White House national security adviser told his Korean counterpart that the U.S. would shoulder the cost according to a 2016 agreement, until any renegotiation.

Doubling down on economic pressure, Trump said he would renegotiate or terminate the KORUS free trade agreement, which he describes as “horrible.” Not too long ago, Trump said he was 100% with the South Korean allies. He still blames South Korea and other U.S. allies for not doing enough to defend themselves. Seoul will be asked to soon pay more one way or another.

In Washington, there is one consistent, comprehensive, and perhaps most reliable source on North Korea policy. It is Secretary of State Rex Tillerson…as he was speaking recently from Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing, New York, and Washington.

In his latest speech at the State Department last week, he summarized what the U.S. policy objective is: a denuclearized Korean peninsula. He explained what “America first” means for foreign policy is to protect America’s security and economic interest ― in contrast to such values as human rights and democracy.

Tillerson’s strategy on North Korea is two-fold: to increase a pressure campaign and to “test” China for pressing the regime in Pyongyang, while keeping all options on the table backed by the strength of force.

While all countries are asked to fully carry out U.N. resolutions on the North, Washington is preparing additional sanctions. The U.S. is “testing China’s influence or their willingness to assert their influence on Pyongyang…by leaning hard into them.”

He also makes clear that the United States does not seek for regime change, regime collapse, an accelerated reunification of Korea, or to go north of the 38th parallel. It sends a clear message that Pyongyang’s security and economic prosperity can only be achieved through their denuclearization.

Tillerson also said, “We are ready and prepared to engage in talks when conditions are right.” North Korea will be the most urgent agenda for the new South Korean president as he steps into office this week. What’s your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.