Madman theory vs. MAD

By Kwon Hee-jong

Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is no longer working as it used to in this part of the world. The notion has been deeply rooted in North Korea’s thinking through its negotiations with the international community regarding its nuclear program. Perhaps Pyongyang’s calculation has been a grave miscalculation, now that Russia and China, its two powerful neighbors previously believed to constitute a chain reaction in MAD, are apparently working with the U.S. willy-nilly in an internationally choreographed siege on North Korea, the tripwire to regional and global MAD.

The danse macabre started with the “madman” in President Donald J. Trump jaunting to Mar-a-Lago. In what was meant to be the first tryst between the heads of the G2 countries, Ivanka Trump’s daughter Arabella sang in Mandarin “Mo Li Hua” (Jasmine Flowers), a Chinese folk song known as China’s second national anthem, for President Xi Jinping and Madame Peng Liyuan. The performance by the Trump grandchildren included their reciting of old Chinese poems. That was enough for their spiritual communion.

After the music stopped, there came the literal bombshell of the missile strike on the Syrian airbase, which cited the poison gas used to kill civilians including children and which Russia later called “an act of aggression against a sovereign country.” People who suspect a Russia tie through the last U.S. presidential election are now left scratching their heads. For now, one can only speculate about what could have transpired with the odd couple. When he was told of the strike, President Xi told President Trump that he understood the U.S. response “because of the death of children.” As the Chinese president left America to go home, the Chinese state news agency just so punctually poured out criticisms on the U.S. attack.

Once Xi returned to Beijing, the US Pacific Command sent the Carl Vinson strike group toward the Korean Peninsula, unleashing usual mixed with unprecedentedly subdued responses from Chinese authorities and media. And by midweek, the Global Times, the scrappy state newspaper of China, advised Pyongyang to “avoid making mistakes at this time,” hinting at growing Chinese support for “restricting oil imports to the North.” The paper’s take on the current developments is quite succinct: “Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs point to the opposite direction.” All these fragments only suggest North Korea is now China’s white elephant. So, who will be left standing when the music stops?

On the home front, South Korea officially started its makeup presidential race on Apr. 17. With the wreckage of the Sewol ferry successfully perched on land at the hands of China’s Shanghai Salvage Company, the nation is now equally riveted to both the domestic and international races. Grappling with the Herculean task and torn between the two equally supererogatory acts of God, the people of South Korea are feeling overloaded. Still, homework has to be done.

Along with the madman and the tripwire to MAD, one more thing is driving South Korean voters mad: fine dust. With the local media now offering more scientific data and explanations about particulate matter, voters appear less than thrilled. Thus, the people may get mesmerized by the dichotomy between madness and civilization presented by satellite particulate air pollution maps. After THAAD retaliation, China still has a chance to contribute to South Korea’s anger management solely by defusing the tripwire and reducing its dust. What is maddening indeed is the fact that all these crucial decisions are going to be condensed into the forthcoming election.

With Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo locking horns in a de facto duel, the conservatives and the progressives in this country are regrouping in their bids to reorganize not just the political but social, economic, and cultural arrangements for the nation. With the conservative spinoffs left in jitters from the fission brought by the split vision that formed in the wake of the impeachment, the national race for its political leadership is now in the hands of the progressives. Between Moon charting a big government and Ahn favoring a small one, both of whom are trailed by dogged conservative runners, the choice by most voters will shape the next government and the future for the country. Whether their favored candidates will finish the race or not, the hardcore conservative voters may regardless soldier on to forge a casting vote in an increasingly hard-to-tell contest. Which candidate will laugh last?

Having furiously used the scandal and the ensuing impeachment to slough off the re-imposed shackles of stupefying unreason and arbitrary incompetence, the majority of Korean voters now feel they have been empowered to deal with the two-pronged situation. With the international tug-of-war over North Korean nukes likely to enter its conclusive phase, South Korean voters will spend the next 20 or so days trying to figure out what kind of life and future they should choose for themselves and their children.

Kwon Hee-jong is a Facebook commentator.