May's election call deploys shrewd but weak

By Nick Renaud-Komiya

LONDON - Politics, like comedy, is all about timing.

By calling for a ‘snap’ general election, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has finally decided to capitalise on her party’s popularity ratings, which have been robust since the beginning of the year.

While Mrs May is not known primarily for her sense of humour, she tests the rest of the country’s credulity by pretending that next month’s election is all about giving her a stronger hand in the ‘Brexit’ talks, which are to begin shortly.

May has made a very understandable calculation - her small majority among lawmakers in parliament, currently 17 seats, could swell to over 100, according to recent polling.

This situation is helped by a fragmented opposition, nominally led by the left-of-centre Labour Party, itself currently engaged in fratricidal bloodletting over its future direction.

However, on the domestic front, the Prime Minister’s most effective opponents are lawmakers within her own party. Recent proposals on education reform, for instance, have faced stiff opposition from internal critics.

By adding seats in the legislature, May can hope to weaken those in her own party who oppose her positions on the shape of Britain’s departure from the EU in addition to her blue-collar domestic agenda.

In announcing on Tuesday (18 April) her decision to call the vote, Mrs May argued that, while the country is united on the decision to leave the European Union, it is the lawmakers in Westminster that are trying their best to prevent our exit by ‘playing games’.

This argument is demonstrably false. While political opponents have pushed for the ability to scrutinise any final deal reached on the terms of Britain’s departure from the bloc, the legislature has voted through the formal measures triggering the start of the exit process.

Meanwhile, with airlines, video game developers and investment banks among those scratching their heads over whether to relocate their UK operations or stay and endure years of regulatory uncertainty, the election offers one intriguing point of interest.

Mrs May has clearly signalled her desire to pull the UK out of the common customs and free trade rules observed by EU member states - a concern for many international businesses with operations in the UK or those importing into Britain.

It is just about possible that the election could produce a large enough number of representatives keen to see this goal watered down - both within the governing party and outside.

If this were to happen, the door to Britain continuing to trade with South Korea on the terms enshrined in the EU’s 2011 free trade agreement with the Republic, could remain open, offering companies a measure of predictability.

But with the UK government looking to set the ball rolling on bespoke free trade agreements - government ministers tasked with promoting international trade have reportedly made 35 trips abroad since last July - the prospect of hanging onto existing arrangements is not all that bright.

Whatever issues are raised throughout this short election campaign, Brexit will play a part in driving tough decisions the next UK government will face closer to home, as it negotiates its way out the EU door.

Nationalist lawmakers in Scotland have spotted another opportunity to agitate for a separation from the UK.

While they lost the 2014 vote on Scottish independence, the secessionists are now arguing - not unfairly - that Brexit changes the position of the Scots, 62 per cent of whom voted to remain in the EU.

A key question mark remains over what will become of the border between Northern Ireland, a British province, and the Republic of Ireland. Presently, the border is ‘soft’ - the result of a bilateral agreement allowing goods and people to pass without border checks.

Britain’s withdrawal will complicate arrangements with the only EU member with which it would share its frontiers.

If border posts were ever to return, the tension would be very real. Older generations who still recall TV footage of British soldiers patrolling the region’s streets during its decades-long period of violence have no wish to see history repeat itself.

Ultimately, the one thing that will be clear after the 8 June election is that Britain’s journey out of the EU will continue unabated, under a premier who will have consolidated her power, but in a country more divided than ever.

Whether Mrs May’s government will be able to navigate the political and administrative headaches that will spring from the EU departure process remains to be seen.

The country that will emerge from the other side of the process, perhaps a decade from now, could look very different indeed.

Nick Renaud-Komiya is a London-based journalist writing extensively on healthcare issues, public policy and financial markets. He was previously a reporter at The Independent newspaper. Over the last five years his work has been published in British newspapers and magazines.